Monday, July 30, 2007

7/31/07 PHI @ CHI Game 2 Preview!

The Cubs got shut down by a left-handed Ace, what more is there to say? Lilly labored through 5 and got terrible run support. On the bright side of things, the bullpen did a nice job of holding the Phillies down and they're going to be called upon to do so again sometime in the future. I really think Hendry is going to make some sort of move to either get a left-handed reliever into the pen or a situational righty onto the bench to hit against the lefties. Tomorrow should be an interesting day as the deadline looms and the Cubs still sit within 1 game striking distance. The Mets pick up Luis Castillo and head to Milwaukee and can hopefully beat the struggling Brewers. If so, it's up to the Cubs as to whether or not they're going to be sharing 1st with the Crew tomorrow. They'll be facing a struggling righty and they really need to get that offense going tomorrow with Marquis on the mound. Go Cubs and Keep the Faith.

* 7/31/07 - 7:05 PM CDT: Philadelphia Phillies (56-49, 2nd NLE); (27-26 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (55-49, 2nd NLC); (27-25 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 87°F
Feels like: 89°F
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Probability of Precip:0 %
Outlook: Sunny with light breeze from E at 5 MPH (Coming in from behind home plate out to center)
Overall: Gonna be a warm but comfortable one.

Pitching Match up: Jason Marquis *RHP* (7-6, 4.20 ERA;1.30 WHIP) vs. Adam Eaton *RHP* (9-6, 5.83 ERA;1.54 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Adam Eaton-

  • Adam Eaton, with a $7.2 million 2007 salary, hasn't lived up to the cash he's earning. The former 1st round pick by the Phillies is back in Philadelphia looking for some way to turn his career around. Despite struggling mightily this year, Eaton is looking for his 10th win tomorrow.
  • Baserunners: Eaton allows base runners at a rate of 1.54 per inning and strands just 67.7% of them. Baserunners have had a hard time stealing against Eaton, going just 5 for 12 (.417%).
  • Contact: Eaton has a decent 5.7 K's per 9 combined with a high 3.9 Walks per 9. When you combine the amount of contact Eaton gives up with 19.7% of batted balls going for line drives, Eaton does give up plenty of hits.
  • Homerun Prevention: Eaton's homerun prevention is rather poor. With a groundball % of 38.3%, Eaton is a big time flyball pitcher with 12.8% of those flyballs leaving the yard. In 120.1 innings of work, he has 19 homeruns surrendered (About 1.4 per 9 innings.)
  • Overall: Overall you have a flyball pitcher who lost a chunk of his strikeout potential and gives up way too much contact. With a hint of wildness and poor homerun prevention, Eaton justifies his near 6 ERA.
  • Home/Road: Eaton has been 'better' on the road this year with a 6-2 record and a 5.40 ERA. He has a career 3.68 ERA in Wrigley field (4 starts).
  • Career vs. opposing club: In 8 career starts against Chicago, Eaton is 5-2 with a 4.31 ERA and .257 Opponent Batting Average.
  • Season vs. opposing club: Eaton has not faced the Cubs this year.
  • Recent: Eaton is 2-1 this July with a 6.11 ERA and .322 Opponent Batting Average. In his last start against Washington, Eaton went 6.1 innings (No Decision) giving up 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 0 walks to 2 strikeouts.

-Jason Marquis-

  • Jason Marquis is really struggling with the Cubs right now. Since early June, Marquis has seen his ERA bloat from 2.84 to his current mark of 4.20. The $4.75 million dollar man seems dead set on matching up his ERA with his salary as of late.
  • Baserunners: Marquis allows baserunners at a rate of 1.3 per inning, though that has been increasing recently. Of those runners he allows, just 68.9% of them have been stranded. Runners also love to run on Marquis with a mark of 10 out of 11 successful steals (.909%).
  • Contact: With a low 5 K's per 9, Marquis surely finds a lot of bats. With the amount of contact he gives up, his 3.6 walks per 9 gets him into a lot of trouble. With a solid Line Drive rate of 16.6%, Marquis can focus more so on limiting the walks.
  • Homerun Prevention: Marquis is generally a groundball pitcher with a 47.8% groundball percentage this year, but doesn't sport good homerun prevention because of it. He still has a 12.0% HRs per fly (Rising lately) and has given up 16 homeruns in 122 innings.
  • Overall: Overall Marquis is a contact pitcher with a good groundball rate but gets into a boatload of trouble with his walk totals and inability to keep flyballs in the park. With the Phillies likely to run a marathon off of him, Marquis needs to shore up his location in the zone quickly and keep the ball low.
  • Home/Road: Marquis has been a better pitcher at Home this year with a 5-2 record and a 3.72 ERA. He has a strong WHIP of 1.15 at home supported by a nice .223 Opponent Batting Average and a 6 K/9.
  • Career vs. opposing club: In 16 appearances and 9 starts against the Phillies, Marquis is 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 60 innings of work.
  • Season vs. opposing club: Marquis has not faced the Phillies this year.
  • Recent: In the 2nd half so far, Marquis is 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA in 3 starts. In his last start at St.Louis, Marquis went 5 innings (Loss) while allowing 6 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks to 1 strikeout.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs continued their struggles against left-handed pitchers in game 1 and managed just 1 run off the Theriot solo shot. Luckily for the Cubs, they'll be facing a righty in game 2 and hopefully can get back on track. Nevertheless, the offense struggled in game 1 and needs to find a way to beat left-handers or they won't be getting too far in 07'. With the on-paper talent the Cubs have, they really should be better against lefties anyways. Overall, the Cubs still have the offensive talent and what looks like a reviving power dimension to put up big numbers on the board.

-I- Who's hot?: Ryan Theriot is 6 for his last 15 (.400) with a homer, 2 stolen bases, and 5 runs scored.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 17 (.176). It doesn't look like he's responding well to the increased bench time.

-III- All or nothing: Derrek Lee is just 3 for 13 (.231/.231/.692) against Eaton lifetime, but 2 of those hits were round-trippers. Jason Kendall is 4 for 10 (.400/.500/.600) with a triple.
-IV- Ramirez 'Eaton' up: Aramis Ramirez is just 3 for 16 (.188/.235/.438) against Eaton in his lifetime.

-PHILLIES- The Phillies took another hit or two on the injury side of things when speedsters Victorino and Bourne went down with apparent leg injuries. Despite the injuries, the Phillies still sport an intimidating offense with the 30/30-type Rollins and the powerhouse of Ryan Howard. Although the Phillies managed just 4 runs in game 1, it was against a hot left-handed starter in Lilly. With the contact righty Marquis looming in game 2, the Phillies can still put up some huge numbers in a hurry.

-I- BB Burrell: Pat Burrell is 8 for 25 (.320/.469/.400) against Marquis with a pair of doubles and 7 walks. Tadahito Iguchi is 4 for 6 (.667/.714/.833). Chris Coste is 3 for 3 (1.000/1.000/1.000). Ryan Howard is 2 for 4 (.500/.667/.500).
-II- Jumblin' Jimmy: Jimmy Rollins is just 3 for 28 (.107/.219/.107) lifetime against Marquis with 2 of 4 successful steals (.500%).

-III- Who's hot?: Jimmy Rollins has a 10 game hitting streak that has him batting 18 for 46 (.391) with 2 doubles, 4 triples, 2 homers, and 3 stolen bases.
-IV-
Who's not: Carlos Ruiz is 2 for his last 15 (.133).

What to hope for:
- The Cubs jump all over Eaton early and often as Marquis against the Philadelphia offense doesn't look like a good match-up to me.


What to watch for:
- The long balls. Two pitchers with poor homerun prevention face off tomorrow against two big-time power potential offenses. Phillies have more a running game option against Marquis while the Cubs have more of a Power game option against Eaton with the wind blowing out.

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Hill C
9- Marquis P

Go Cubs!

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