Tuesday, July 31, 2007

8/01/07 PHI @ CHI Game 3 Preview!

Why does it feel so good when the Cubs win with Marquis on the mound? Don't you hate to have that feeling with one of the Cub pitchers? Hopefully this is the start of Marquis returning to early season form as the Cubs really need this guy to give them solid outings. Nonetheless, the Cubs took advantage of a terrible pitcher today and beat a rather hot ball club. The offense came to at the right time and once again the unlikely heros ruled the day. First off, kudos to Marquis to registering a quality start against a hot Phillies offense. He kept the team in the ballgame long enough for the offense to jump on Eaton and you really have to appreciate that from Marquis. Jacque Jones also had a nice redeemer in game 2 when he knocked a double to left that lead to 2 big runs (1 RBI and an error on the play). Finally, great job by Kendall to man up with 2 outs and the bases packed and lace a 2 run single to left center. For someone who has struggled offensively all year to come in that situation and come out with a big hit takes guts. Keep it going Kendall! Keep the Faith folks.

* 8/01/07 - 7:05 PM CDT: Philadelphia Phillies (56-50, 2nd NLE); (27-27 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (56-49, 2nd NLC); (28-25 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 89°F
Feels like: 92°F
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Probability of Precip:0 %
Outlook: Sunny with light breeze from SSE at 5 MPH (Coming in from right field)
Overall: Another sunny comfortable game at Wrigley.

Pitching Match up: Rich Hill *LHP* (6-6, 3.59 ERA;1.17 WHIP) vs. Jamie Moyer *LHP* (9-8, 4.75 ERA;1.33 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Jamie Moyer-

  • Jamie Moyer, the Phillies' 44 year old lefty and proud owner of a $6 million 07' salary, is looking for win number 10 this season and 226 overall tomorrow at Wrigley. The two-time 20 game winner has been left out for some beatings this season, but overall still gives a solid effort on the mound.
  • Baserunners: Moyer allows base runners at a rate of 1.33 per inning and strands 70.1% of them. Baserunners are 7 of 11 (.636%) against Moyer in the steals category and he has 3 pick offs on the year.
  • Contact: Moyer has an underwhelming 5.4 K's per 9 combined but has a solid 2.7 Walks per 9. That said, Moyer does give up a lot of contact with 19% of that contact (Almost 1 out of every 5 batted balls) going for a line drive. It all adds up to Moyer giving up a bit too many hits at a mark of 137 in 132.2 innings.
  • Homerun Prevention: Moyer's homerun prevention has never been too good, and this year isn't any exception. With a groundball % of 39.4%, Moyer is a big time flyball pitcher with 12.1% of those flyballs leaving the yard. In 132.2 innings of work, he has 19 homeruns surrendered (About 1.3 per 9 innings.)
  • Overall: Overall Moyer is a flyball pitcher that doesn't really overwhelm batters but he does throw strikes. Moyer tends to give up the long ball in bunches and can give his skipper 6 or 7 innings each time out.
  • Home/Road: Moyer has struggled on the road this year with a 6-6 record and a 5.05 ERA. He has a career 4.26 ERA in Wrigley field (215.1 innings).
  • Career vs. opposing club: In 3 career starts against Chicago, Moyer is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and .227 Opponent Batting Average.
  • Season vs. opposing club: Moyer has not faced the Cubs this year.
  • Recent: Moyer is 2-3 this July with a 6.75 ERA and .323 Opponent Batting Average. In his last start against Pittsburgh, Moyer went 7 strong innings (Win) surrendering 1 run (not earned) on 6 hits and 0 walks to 4 strikeouts.

-Rich Hill-

  • Rich 'Kip' Hill looks to continue his strong 07' campaign tomorrow night when he steps onto mound in search of his 7th win. Hill is earning a modest $400K this year and is really developing into what looks like the Cubs' 3rd best starter.
  • Baserunners: Rich Hill has been allowing baserunners at a strong rate of just 1.17 per inning. Of those runners allowed, Hill strands a stellar 80.3% of them (2nd best in the NL). Runners like to run off of Hill and have 16 of 20 (.800%) successful stolen bases.
  • Contact: The key to Hill's success this year is his strong strikeout rate at 8.3 K's per 9 innings. Although he has a high line drive rate of 21.9% (Tied-5th worst in the NL), the amount of bats Hill misses makes up for it. Hill also walks 3.0 batters per 9 innings, but his solid 103 hits in 123 innings of work makes up for it.
  • Homerun Prevention: The big chink in Hill's armor this year is his homerun prevention. Being a prominent flyball pitcher with a 35.2% ground ball rate, Hill surrenders 14.4% HRs per fly. In just 120 innings of work this year, Hill has watched 20 homeruns leave yard (1.46 per 9).
  • Overall: Overall Hill is flyball/strikeout pitcher with a fairly shaky walk rate but really limits the hits when he's on. Ted Lilly anyone?
  • Home/Road: Hill has a slightly tougher time in Wrigley with a 3-2 record and 3.71 ERA as well as .239 Opponent's Batting Average.
  • Career vs. opposing club: In 2 starts against the Phillies, Hill is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 11 innings of work. He's had trouble with homeruns and walks against the Phils.
  • Season vs. opposing club: Hill has not faced the Phillies this year.
  • Recent: Hill has been solid in his last 3 starts, going 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 17 K's in 19 innings. In his last start at Cincinnati, Hill went just 5 innings while allowing 2 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks to 8 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs got it done in game 2 without the use of a long ball, and you always gotta love seeing that. With the power potential this offense has, it's nice to know that they can still win ballgames without knocking 3 out all the time. If sluggers like Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano truly are regaining their power strokes, this club is going to be a very dangerous force. Now if only Cliff Floyd were to hit for some power once a while...

-I- Who's hot?: Ryan Theriot is 7 for his last 18 (.389) with a homer, 2 stolen bases, and 6 runs scored.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 17 (.176).

-III- Swingin' Soriano: Although Soriano is just 8 for 41 (.195/.209/.512), he has 4 homers and a double as well as 2 stolen bags against Moyer in his lifetime. Kendall is 8 for 25 (.320/.346/.320). Jacque Jones is 6 for 20 (.300/.391/.351).
-IV- No whammy for Rammy: Aramis Ramirez is 0 for 5 (.000/.167/.000) against Moyer in his lifetime.

-PHILLIES- The Phillies add another 2 players to the DL, this time the pair of speedsters in Victorino and Bourne. Although they have a lot of key offensive players out at the moment, the Phillies offense is still a force to be reckoned with. With Rollins and Howard leading the way along with a hot Pat Burrell, these Phils still have the ability to do some damage.

-I- Twin Bombers: Both Pat Burrell and Tadahito Iguchi are 3 for 5 (.600/.667/1.800) against Hill lifetime with 2 homeruns. Jimmy Rollins is 2 for 6 (.333/.333/1.000). Rowand is 2 for 4 (.500/.667/.750).
-II- Howard not king of the Hill: Ryan Howard is 0 for 3 (.000/.000/.000) lifetime against Hill with 2 K's.

-III- Who's hot?: Tadahito Iguchi is trying his best to pull a Chase Utley impression. Iguchi is 6 for 13 (.462) with a homer and 2 stolen bases so far with Philadelphia.
-IV-
Who's not: Carlos Ruiz is 2 for his last 15 (.133).

What to hope for:
- The Cubs keep the momentum going on both sides of the ball and tee off against Moyer. When Moyer gives up homers, he gives them up in bunches.


What to watch for:
- Once again, look for the long ball. Two flyball pitchers with poor homerun prevention square off tomorrow in Wrigley against two powerful offenses. Let's see more balls stay in the bleachers tomorrow than balls thrown back, eh?

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- DeRosa 2B
6- Murton RF
7- Pagan CF
8- Kendall C
9- Hill P

Go Cubs!

5 comments:

Dean said...

Nice work on the blog, Matthew. Do you have an email address I can contact you at?

Matthew said...

Yes Dean,
My E-mail is st33lwolf@yahoo.com. Thanks,

-M.B.

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