Wednesday, August 1, 2007

8/02/07 PHI @ CHI Game 4 Preview!

Doesn't it feel great? After a season of doing nothing but looking up. After a point in late May where it looked like the season was over. After doing nothing for weeks on end but saying "Man, the Cubs are just X games out!". After many thrilling wins and heart breaking losses, we can all finally say it. The Chicago Cubs are in first place. Keep the Faith.

* 8/02/07 - 1:20 PM CDT: Philadelphia Phillies (56-51, 3rd NLE); (27-28 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (57-49, T-1st NLC); (29-25 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 89°F
Feels like: 91°F
Sunset: 8:08 PM
Probability of Precip:10 %
Outlook: Sunny with light breeze from WSW at 9 MPH (Coming in from 1st base dugout)
Overall: Another sunny comfortable game at Wrigley.

Pitching Match up: Sean Marshall *LHP* (5-4, 3.10 ERA;1.25 WHIP) vs. Kyle Lohse *RHP* (6-12, 4.58 ERA;1.34 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Kyle Lohse-

  • Recently acquired righty Kyle Lohse will look for his 1st win as a Phillie tomorrow in the 1st day game and the finale of this 4 game set. The $4.20 (Something's up there) million dollar man will make his first start since July 25th as a member of the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Baserunners: Lohse allows base runners at a rate of 1.34 per inning and strands a low 66.4% of them. Baserunners are a decent 6 of 10 (.600%) against Lohse on the base paths this year while he has just 1 pickoff.
  • Contact: Lohse is managing just 5.47 K's per 9 this year so he does give up a lot of contact. He sports a high 21.6% line drive percentage and the total hits given up this season (143 in 131.2 IP) reflects that. Lohse does have a low 2.26 walks per 9 so he does throw strikes. He compares pretty well statistically in this category to a right-handed Jamie Moyer.
  • Homerun Prevention: Considering the big-time flyball pitcher Lohse is (Just a 35.5% groundball rate), his homerun prevention isn't as bad is it could be. Although he has 16 homers given up in 131.2 innings of work(1.09 per 9), he has a pretty solid 9.6% HRs per fly rate. For a guy like Lohse, you have to give him credit for that.
  • Overall: Overall we have another flyball pitcher with an underwhelming strikeout prowess that pitches to contact. He still throws a lot of strikes and limits the damage VIA the walk, but his strikes do get ripped for hits more often than not. Statistically compares to a right-handed version of Jamie Moyer.
  • Home/Road: Lohse is terrible on the road this year with a 6.42 away ERA and a 2-9 record to show for it. In 1 career start at Wrigley (this year), he went 8 shutout innings.
  • Career vs. opposing club: In 3 career starts against Chicago, Lohse is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and .292 Opponent Batting Average.
  • Season vs. opposing club: In 2 starts against Chicago this year, Lohse is 1-0 with a 1.26 ERA.
  • Recent: In 4 July starts this year, Lohse went 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and .237 Opponents' batting average. In his last start against the Brewers, Lohse went 5.2 innings while allowing 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits and 0 walks to 2 strikeouts.

-Sean Marshall-

  • Coolcat looks to keep on cruising this year in search of his 6th win. Despite producing a 3.10 ERA, Marshall has just 5 wins in his 12 07' starts. The $400K lefty has been a victim of poor run support for a stretch but hopes the Cubs 8 run pounding at Cincinnati last Saturday carries over into his game 4 start.
  • Baserunners: Marshall allows baserunners at a rate of 1.25 this year while stranding a solid 77.6% of them. Baserunners are 4 for 5 (.800%) against Marshall in the running game while Sean has no pickoffs on the year.
  • Contact: Marshall has a solid 6.2 Ks per 9 and gives up an average amount of contact. He sports a stellar 16.7% line drive rate though and can limit the hits well when on. His 2.8 walks per 9 is pretty average but he has worked around this well so far this year.
  • Homerun Prevention: Save for one shelling Marshall took in Texas, his homerun prevention has been top notch. He gets a good amount of ground balls at a 47.4% rate and surrenders just 8% of his flyballs as homeruns. He has 6 homers given up on the year in 69.2 innings (0.78 per 9) this year, but has not allowed a homerun in his last 6 starts.
  • Overall: Overall Marshall is an average contact lefty with a good groundball rate and a knack at limiting the extra base hits.
  • Home/Road: Marshall is pretty solid at home this year, though he is much better on the road. In 6 home starts this year, Marshall is 2-3 with a 3.60 ERA and .259 Opponent's batting average.
  • Career vs. opposing club: In 1 career start against Philadelphia, Marshall went 3.1 innings giving up 6 earned runs (16.20 ERA)
  • Season vs. opposing club: Marshall has not faced the Phillies this year.
  • Recent: Marshall has been great his past 4 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA and .236 Opponent's batting average. In his last start at Cincinnati, Marshall went 6 strong innings giving up 1 earned run on 6 hits and 1 walk to 3 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs rested a couple of key starters in game 3 and still managed to churn out 5 runs for the victory. You have to feel great about winning such a huge game knowing full well that Ramirez, Theriot, and Floyd received a nice amount of rest in the process. The offense should be locked and ready tomorrow with some big bats returning to the lineup.

-I- Who's hot?: Ryan Theriot is 7 for his last 18 (.389) with a homer, 2 stolen bases, and 6 runs scored.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 18 (.167).

-III- Killer Quartet: Alfonso Soriano is 11 for 27 (.407/.407/.704) against Lohse lifetime with 2 doubles, 2 homers, and 2 stolen bases. Mark DeRosa is 6 for 11 (.545/.614/818). Aramis Ramirez is 5 for 5 (1.000/1.000/2.000). Cliff Floyd is 3 for 8 (.375/.375/1.000).
-IV- Joker Jones: Jacque Jones is 0 for 6 (.000/.000/.000) lifetime against Lohse.

-PHILLIES- The Phillies had a lot of chances in game 3 but still managed to produce 4 runs. Despite losing key players such as Utley, Victorino, and Bourne, the Phillies still have a scary offense capable of putting many runs on the board.

-I- No sufficient sample for Phil batters against Marshall (hot)
-II- No sufficient sample for Phil batters against Marshall (cold)

-III- Who's hot?: Tadahito Iguchi continues to fill the big shoes of Chase Utley for the Phillies. Iguchi is 8 for 18 (.444) with a homer and 2 stolen bases so far with Philadelphia.
-IV-
Who's not: Carlos Ruiz is 2 for his last 19 (.105).

What to hope for:
- The Killer quartet of Soriano, Ramirez, DeRosa, and Floyd continue their dominance of Kyle Lohse.

- Sean Marshall not to get chased early. Not only does it jeopardize the chance of a win, but the bullpen needs it.


What to watch for:
- The top 6 of the Cubs' order. It contains some strong numbers against Lohse as well as The hot-hitting Riot and re-surging Derrek Lee.

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Hill C
9- Marshall P

Go Cubs!

1 comment:

joe said...

good preview man!