Saturday, August 4, 2007

8/05/07 NYM @ CHI Game 3 Preview!

Hello folks! Once again I'm going to stray away from the previous game review and random thoughts tonight to bring up something I got in an E-mail. I recently got an E-mail saying, "Hey Matt you should have your own version of the Cubs mailbag thing and answer E-mail questions and such about stuff.". I wouldn't mind doing something like that, but I'll post up a poll and see what you folks think. Now, I don't have the extreme 'inside sources' Muskat has or anything like that, but I think I'd be able to at least give my take on things. I don't know, it's entirely up to you fans what to ask. Go Cubs and Keep the Faith!

* 8/05/07 - 7:05 PM CDT: New York Mets (62-48, 1st NLE); (32-25 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (58-51, 2nd NLC); (30-27 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 84°F
Feels like: 90°F
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Probability of Precip:30 %
Outlook: Cloudy with chance of showers and moderate winds coming in from WSW at 14 MPH (Blowing out to Right field.)
Overall: Looks to be a wet one with a nice breeze but game should get in.

Pitching Match up: Jason Marquis *RHP* (8-6, 4.22 ERA;1.32 WHIP) vs. Tom Glavine *LHP* (9-6, 4.38 ERA;1.38 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Tom Glavine-

  • Tom Glavine has been waiting a long time for this, 20 years to be exact. These past 11 days have to feel just as long for him. Glavine takes shot number 2 at 300 career victories tomorrow in the finale and rubber match of this 3 game set. The 41 year old is earning a cool $7.5 million this year and is in search of his 10th win of the 07' campaign. The Mets are 14-9 when this veteran lefty takes the mound this season.
  • Baserunners: Glavine allows base runners at a league-average rate of 1.38 per inning and strands a decent 73.3% of them. Baserunners are just 3 for 10 (.300%) against Glavine in the steals department while the crafty lefty has 2 pick offs on the year.
  • Contact: Glavine has a low strikeout rate of 4.05 Ks per 9 innings, but what news is this? The lefty gives up a lot of contact and has a pretty bad 21.3% line drive rate, but his hits per 9 isn't exactly terrible. He combines this with a 3.2 walks per 9 rate, which is a little up from from his last couple of seasons.
  • Homerun Prevention: Glavine was usually a bigger groundball pitcher in the past, but the last several years has seen his grounball rate fall. As of now, his groundball rate is 41.8% so he does give up a good amount of flyballs this year. Of those flyballs, 11.8% leave the yard: not a great mark. In 137.2 innings of work, Glavine has surrendered 18 HRs (1.18 per 9).
  • Overall: Overall we have an experienced and intelligent crafty left-hander who pitches to contact and allows his fair share of runners VIA both the walk and base hit. He's constantly becoming more of a flyball pitcher while his homerun prevention worsened accordingly.
  • Home/Road: Glavine has been terrible on the road this year with a 3-5 record and 5.53 ERA in 13 away starts. 11 of his 18 homeruns allowed have been on the road and he sports a .286 Road Opponent's batting average. In 15 career starts at Wrigley (94.1 innings), Glavine is 6-5 with a 3.43 ERA and .230 Opponent's batting average.
  • Career vs. opposing club: In 34 starts against Chicago, Glavine is 14-13 with a 3.64 ERA and .236 Opponent's batting average (220.1 innings.)
  • Season vs. opposing club: Glavine had one start against Chicago this year in New York on May 14th. In it, he went 6 innings (No decision) while surrendering 4 runs on 6 hits and4 walks to 2 strikeouts.
  • Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star break, Glavine is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA and .259 Opponent's batting average. In his last start at Milwaukee, Glavine went 6 strong innings surrendering just 1 earned run on 2 hits and 5 walks to 2 strikeouts.

-Jason Marquis-

  • Jason Marquis has been plagued with inconsistency since mid-May but is looking to use his latest quality start as a platform to get back into things. The $4.75 million dollar contact righty is looking for his 9th win on the season in tomorrow's finale. Despite Marquis being woefully inconsistent, the Cubs are 14-8 when Jason takes the mound.
  • Baserunners: Marquis allows baserunners at a rate of 1.32 per inning and strands a poor 69.8% of them. Runners are nearly perfect against Marquis in steals, going 12 for 13 (.923%).
  • Contact: Marquis has a pretty low 5.06 K's per 9 innings and is a fairly high-contact arm. Marquis does have a strong 16.5% line drive rate however, and has done a fine job of limiting hits. One of Marquis' downfalls this year is his walk rate, which is at a pretty poor 3.7 walks per 9 rate.
  • Homerun Prevention: The 2nd reason for Marquis' troubles this year is his poor homerun prevention. Despite being a groundball pitcher with a nice 48.1% groundball rate, Marquis has 17 homeruns surrendered in 128 innings (1.2 per 9) this year. His 12.1% HRs per fly rate definitely contributes to that, and he has surrendered at least 1 homerun in each of his last 6 starts (8 total).
  • Overall: Overall Marquis is a pitch-to-contact groundball righty with resurfacing control troubles and inability to stay away from the homerun ball. If he can limit the walks and homeruns, Marquis' nice hit rate would kick in and he'd potentially be a pretty good pitcher.
  • Home/Road: Marquis has been a better pitcher at home this year. In 12 starts at Wrigley, Marquis is 6-2 with a 3.79 ERA and .231 Opponent's batting average. 6 of his 17 homeruns have left the yard at Wrigley.
  • Career vs. opposing club: In 19 appearances and 12 starts against the Mets, Marquis is 5-4 with a 4.17 ERA and .270 Opponent's batting average (77.2 innings).
  • Season vs. opposing club: Marquis has not faced the Mets this year.
  • Recent: Are we seeing a trend here? In 4 starts since the All-star break, Marquis is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and .287 Opponent's batting average. In his last start against Philadelphia, Marquis went 6 solid innings giving up 3 earned runs on 8 hits and 3 walks to 4 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs' offense put together an impressive two-out rally in game 2 of this 3 game set. They displayed patience, key hitting, ability to capitalize on opponent's mistakes, and more patience during that rally. The Cubs have the talent to score plenty of runs but there are still questions to be answered about it: Will they regain their power dimension of offense? Can they beat the crafty lefties, or even lefties at all? These Cubs will be put to the test tomorrow when a determined left-handed vet takes the mound in search of number 300.

-I- Who's hot?: Jacque Jones is 8 for his last 21 (.381) with 4 doubles and 4 RBIs.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 19 (.158). Angel hasn't seen a start in a while now either.

-III- A-Ram and out!: Aramis Ramirez is 11 for 22 (.500/.571/.955) with a double and 3 homers against Glavine lifetime. Cliff Floyd is 13 for 33 (.394/.444/.636) with a pair of doubles and homers. Derrek Lee is 15 for 52 (.288/.393/.500) with 5 doubles, 9 walks, and a pair of homers. Alfonso Soriano is 7 for 18 (.389/.476/.611) with a double, homer, and 3 stolen bases.
-IV- Common' Kendall..: Jason Kendall is 8 for 40 (.200/.220/.400) lifetime against Glavine, but has 2 homeruns. Mark DeRosa is 1 for 10 (.100/.250/.400).

-METS- The Mets threatened a fair amount of times in game 2 but never capitalized on their opportunities. To break it all down, the game was pretty much: Moises Alou - 2 vs. Chicago Cubs - 6. The Mets still have a very dangerous lineup with a patience that will surely test a wild pitcher like Marquis.

-I- The Wright way: David Wright is 6 for 17 (.353/.333/.529) lifetime against Marquis with a homer. Ramon Castro is 5 for 11 (.455/.500/1.091) with a double and 2 homers. Castillo is 7 for 19 (.368/.455/.368). Green is 7 for 23 (.304/.407/.435).
-II- Alooouuuser: Moises Alou is just 1 for 11 (.091/.231/.364) lifetime against Marquis with a homer.

-III- Who's hot?: Moises Alou is 7 for his last 14 (.500) with 2 homers and a double.
-IV-
Who's not: Luis Castillo is batting 4 for 20 (.200) as a Met.

What to hope for:
- An umpire that won't squeeze the heck out of the strike zone. Glavine is a guy who can easily get around that while Marquis is a guy that would proceed to throw beach balls over the heart of the plate if that happens.


What to watch for:
- Kerry Wood has to debut tomorrow, no? The last game of this home stand, a pitcher who doesn't figure to go too long even when on, and Lou already saying the guy was going to come out in game 2: The game outcome is more important however.

- Tom Glavine goes for career win number 300 in game 3 of this 3 game set. Let's hope the Cubs help him on his way to 200 career losses.

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF (I'm risking it on Lou noticing his career numbers vs. Glavine.)
6- Fontenot 2B
7- Pagan CF
8- Hill C
9- Marquis P

Go Cubs!

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