Shades Of Blue

On 'Holliday'

2007-08-07T20:04:00.001-07:00

Hello all,

Real life personal issues have come up and I won't have the time to make the usual previews. Some things have come up that I need to address and I don't think I'd have the ability to sacrifice the time. Instead of rushing these things and doing a sloppy job, I've decided to just drop the thing for now. I don't even think I'll be around on the board as much for the next several days. I'll try to pickup the previews again after this road trip ends in full force. I hope you folks understand. Thanks a million,

-M.B.

8/07/07 CHI @ HOU Game 2 Preview!

2007-08-06T20:11:00.000-07:00

Definitely not a good path to take offensively when one of your all-star bats goes down huh? The offense really had trouble tonight, this is true; I'm wondering, however, if it's more because they faced a lefty who's unstoppable at home or that they truly took a large morale hit with Soriano out. The Cubs will hit something like 5-6 straight right handers now, so that should really put a scope on how the Soriano-less offense will produce. On the bright side of things, the pitching looked wonderful and Hill had a really nice confidence building start. The bullpen was doing well but the Astros simply beat them by doing a nice job of manufacturing the winning run. I, of course, am still not anywhere near calling this season lost. Go Cubs, and Keep the Faith.

* 8/07/07 - 7:05 PM CDT: Chicago Cubs (58-53, 2nd NLC); (28-25 Road W-L) @ Houston Astros (49-63, 4th NLC); (29-25 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 90°F
Feels like: 100°F
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Probability of Precip:20 %
Outlook: Sunny with Wind From the S at 9 mph (Out to right-center.)
Overall: Going to be a scorcher pre-game around the park.

Pitching Match up: Sean Marshall *LHP* (5-5, 3.86 ERA;1.34 WHIP) vs. Woody Williams *RHP* (5-12, 5.37 ERA;1.42 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Woody Williams-

Introduction: Age- 40, 07' Salary- $6,000,000, Astros are 9-14 when Williams takes the mound.
Baserunners: Williams allows base runners at a poor rate of 1.42 per inning and strands an OK 69.4% of them. Baserunners are 8 for 12 (.667%) against Woody in the steals department.
Contact: Williams is every bit a contact pitcher with a lousy 4.5 K's per 9 innings. Of that contact given up, 18.3% of it goes for a line drive. Overall, he's allowed 161 hits in 139 innings of work: Not a good rate. He does combine this with a 2.3 Walks per 9 though, which is a big reason why he's not doing any worse.
Homerun Prevention: Williams is a flyball pitcher with a 38.5% groundball rate. Of the flyballs given up, a high 13.5% of them have left the yard. In 139 innings of work this year, he has surrendered 25 homeruns (A horrible 1.62 per 9). To put it simply, he's terrible at keeping the ball in the yard.
Overall: Overall we have an aging contact/flyball righty who gives up plenty of hits and way too many homeruns. He can limit the walks however.
Home/Road: Williams hasn't been too good at home this year. In 9 home starts, he is 3-4 with a 5.33 ERA and .299 Opponent's batting average. 12 of his 25 homeruns have been surrendered at home.
Career vs. opposing club: In 18 Appearances and 17 starts against Chicago, Williams is 3-9 with a 4.42 ERA and .275 Opponent's batting average (106 innings).
Season vs. opposing club: In 2 starts (both at Wrigley) against Chicago this year, Woody is 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA (13 innings).
Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star break, Williams is 1-2 with a 5.54 ERA and .302 Opponent's batting average. In his last start at Atlanta, he went 5 innings while surrendering 7 earned runs on 13 hits and 0 walks to 2 strikeouts.

-Sean Marshall-

Introduction: Age- 24, 07' Salary: $400,000, The Cubs are 7-6 when Marshall takes the mound.
Baserunners: Marshall allows baserunners at an average rate of 1.34 per inning and strands an ok 73.4% of them. Runners have 5 stolen base attempts against Marshall this year, and were successful in 4 (.800%).
Contact: Marshall has a solid 6.2 K's per 9 and allows an average amount of contact. Of those batted balls given up, 17% of them go for line drives. Overall, he has 74 hits allowed in 72.1 innings: Not bad, but not good. He has a 2.9 walks per 9 and gets in trouble when combines that hit rate with a few too many walks.
Homerun Prevention: Marshall is more of a groundball left with a nice 46.7% groundball rate. Of the fly balls he does give up, only 8.6% of them have gone for homeruns. Overall, his homerun prevention has been very good at 7 homeruns allowed in 72.1 innings (0.87 per 9).
Overall: Overall Marshall is an average contact lefty with a good groundball rate that leads to very good homerun prevention. He does allow too many baserunners VIA the walk and base hit though.
Home/Road: Marshall has been wonderful on the road this year. In 6 starts away starts, He is 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA and .227 Opponent's batting average. 4 of his 7 homeruns have been allowed on the road. He never had a start at Minute Maid Park. In 2 starts (14 innings) at Minute Maid park, Marshall is 1-1 with 0.64 ERA.
Career vs. opposing club: In 3 starts against the Astros, Sean is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA and .262 Opponents Batting Average (18 innings).
Season vs. opposing club: Marshall has not faced the Astrps this year.
Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star break, Marshall is 1-2 with a 4.79 ERA and .294 Opponent's batting average. In his last start against Philadelphia, Marshall went just 2.2 innings while giving up 7 earned runs on 9 hits and 1 walks to 2 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- Yet another loss to a lefty starter for the Cubs. This time the Cubs got shutdown by a lefty starter who's practically unstoppable at home. Can the Cubs still fare well against righties with Soriano out? They have the talent in the middle of the order, and they're hoping Theriot can keep it up.

-I- Who's hot?: Jacque Jones is 8 for his last 22 (.364) with 4 doubles and 4 RBIs.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 4 for his last 27 (.148).

-III- Killer Kendall: Jason Kendall is 18 for 35 (.514/.553/.657) lifetime against Williams with 2 doubles, a homer, and 4 stolen bases. Cliff Floyd is 10 for 27 (.370/.393/.630) with a double and 2 homers. Derrek Lee is 10 for 31 (.323/.400/.419). Ramirez is 13 for 43 (.302/.333/.488).
-IV- DeRo no HeRo: Mark DeRosa is 1 for 10 (.100/.100/.10) lifetime against Williams.

-Astros- The Astro offense didn't really show up in game 1 either. They have the talent in the middle of their order but not much surrounds it.

-I- Killer B's?: Chris Burke is 5 for 7 (.714/.714/1.143) lifetime against Marshall with a homer. Craig Biggio is 3 for 9 (.333/.400/.444).

-I- But not this one: Lance Berkman is 2 for 9 (.222/.300/.333) lifetime against Marshall with a double.

-III- Who's hot?: Carlos Lee is 10 for his last 26 (.385) with a pair of homers and doubles during that stretch.
-IV- Who's not: Brad Ausmus is batting just 8 for 49 (.163) since the All-star Break.

What to hope for:
- The Soriano-less offense can still take of business against Right-handed starters.

What to watch for:
- Sean Marshall supposedly had an "eye" problem during his last start. The Cubs will face their first righty starter since Soriano went down. Here comes the real test.

Projected Lineup: (Putting a lot of risk in 1-2 tonight.)
1- Theriot SS
2- Patterson LF
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Kendall C
9- Marshall P

Go Cubs!

8/06/07 CHI @ HOU Game 1 Preview!

2007-08-05T19:26:00.000-07:00

I'm a bit too speechless tonight to make the usual opening comments. At least Wood looked nasty, eh? I'm also going to start my own version of the Mailbag and post it up on the blog. If you want to be a part of things and ask a question, ask for a stat, ask for my opinion, or just strike up a conversation - drop me an E-mail at st33lwolf@yahoo.com.

Keep the Faith.

* 8/06/07 - 7:05 PM CDT: Chicago Cubs (58-52, 2nd NLC); (28-24 Road W-L) @ Houston Astros (48-63, 4th NLC); (28-25 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 87°F
Feels like: 96°F
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Probability of Precip:20 %
Outlook: Partly Cloudy with winds coming in from the S at 11 MPH (Out towards Right Center)
Overall: Looks like a hot and humid night at Minute Maid.

Pitching Match up: Rich Hill *LHP* (6-6, 3.67 ERA;1.21 WHIP) vs. Wandy Rodriguez *LHP* (7-10, 4.72 ERA;1.30 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Wandy Rodriguez-

Introduction: Age- 28, 07' Salary- $406,000, Astros are 10-11 when Wandy takes the mound.
Baserunners: Rodriguez allows base runners at an ok rate of 1.30 per inning and strands a poor 65.2% of them. Baserunners are 8 for 14 (.571%) against Wandy in the steals department while he has 3 pickoffs on the year.
Contact: Rodriguez has a strong 7.8 K's per 9 innings rate which does help the lefty limit his contact. Of that contact surrendered, Wandy allows a solid 17.9% of those batted balls as line drives. It doesn't quite add up to his 125 hits in 124 innings though. Wandy has a nice 2.6 walks per 9 inning though he sometimes has control meltdowns.
Homerun Prevention: Rodriguez is an average groundball/flyball pitcher with a 42.9% groundball rate. Of the flyballs given up, 11.8% of them leave the yard. In 124 innings of work this year, he has surrendered 16 homeruns (1.16 per 9). Overall, his homerun prevention is decent considering that he's a lefty in Minute Maid Park.
Overall: Overall we have an average Flyball/Groundball lefty with a strong strikeout game and solid walk rate. His hit rate is a little high as well, though the numbers don't exactly add up to such a rate. The lefty is prone to the occasional blow-up and doesn't have good homerun prevention.
Home/Road: Wandy has been an utterly dominating pitcher at home this year. In 10 starts at home, he is 6-2 with a 1.76 ERA .202 Opponent's batting average. Just 4 of his 16 homeruns were surrendered at home.
Career vs. opposing club: In 6 starts against Chicago, Rodriguez is 2-4 with a 6.09 ERA and .294 Opponent's batting average (34 innings)
Season vs. opposing club: Wandy had one start at Chicago this year on July 15th. In it, he went 3.1 innings (loss) while surrendering 7 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks to 2 strikeouts.
Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star break, Rodriguez is 1-3 with a 9.31 ERA and .325 Opponent's batting average. In his last start at Atlanta, he went 4 innings while surrendering 8 earned runs on 6 hits and 5 walks to 4 strikeouts.

-Rich Hill-

Introduction: Age- 27, 07' Salary: $400,000, The Cubs are 9-12 when Hill takes the mound.
Baserunners: Hill allows baserunners at a nice rate of 1.21 per inning and strands a strong 79.9% of them. Runners love Hill and are 16 for 20 (.800%) against him in the steals category.
Contact: Hill has a very nice 8.3 K's per 9 innings and the strikeout is crucial to his success. He has a poor line drive rate of 21.5% and limits hits by limiting contact. With that said, he doesn't give up too much contact and has a nice 111 hits in 127.2 innings to show for it. One of his problems is his walk rate, which is at an ok 3 walks per 9.
Homerun Prevention: Hill's most glaring weakness is his homerun prevention. He's already a big time fly ball pitcher with a groundball rate of 34.8%, but 14.3% of those flyballs leave the yard. This amounts to a very poor 21 homeruns allowed in 127.2 innings (1.48 per 9).
Overall: Overall Hill is a flyball lefty with terrible homerun prevention but a very good strikeout game and low hit rate because of it. He is a bit shaky with the walks though and tends to run up his pitch count early.
Home/Road: Hill has been a better pitcher on the road this year. In 11 starts away starts, Hill is 3-4 with a 3.49 ERA and .219 Opponent's batting average. 12 of his 21 homeruns have been allowed on the road. He never had a start at Minute Maid Park.
Career vs. opposing club: In 2 appearances against the Astros, Hill is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and .125 Opponents Batting Average (2.1 innings).
Season vs. opposing club: Hill has not faced the Astrps this year.
Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star break, Hill is 1-0 with a 3.04 ERA and .264 Opponent's batting average. In his last start against Philadelphia, Hill went just 4.2 innings while giving up 4 runs (3 earned) on 8 hits and 3 walks to 5 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- Another loss to a lefty starter for the Cubs. The team had a couple of good offensive innings but overall looked sloppy. To top it all off, Soriano may be gone for a good chunk of the season. How can the Cubs handle losing his presence? How serious is his injury? Is Pie on the way back and can he be the player we hope he'd be? The Cubs don't hit another tough string of games until Late-August, Early-September: Will they be prepared for it?

-I- Who's hot?: Jacque Jones is 8 for his last 22 (.364) with 4 doubles and 4 RBIs.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 4 for his last 23 (.174).

-III- UnbeLeeveable: Derrek Lee is 6 for 9 (.667/.733/1.556) against Rodriguez lifetime with 2 doubles, 2 homers, and 5 walks. Matt Murton is 4 for 11 (.364/.417/.909) with a pair of homers.
-IV- Oh man A-Ram..: Aramis Ramirez is 2 for 11 (.182/.182/.182) lifetime against Rodriguez.

-Astros- The Astro offense has been working well as of late, managing 30 runs scored in their last 4 games. With big batters such as Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and recently acquire Ty Wiggington, the Astros have some good pop in their lineup.

-I- and -II-: No sufficient At-bats for career 'hot & cold against Hill' numbers.

-III- Who's hot?: Lance Berkman is 8 for his last 31 (.258), but has 4 homeruns during that stretch.
-IV- Who's not: Brad Ausmus is batting just 7 for 48 (.146) since the All-star Break.

What to hope for:
- Soriano's injury is minor and has a quick recovery.

What to watch for:
- The Cubs destroyed Wandy Rodriguez at Wrigley earlier in the year, but Rodriguez is lights-out at home. It'll be interesting to see what split shows up tomorrow.

Projected Lineup:
1- Theriot SS
2- Cedeno 2B
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- DeRosa RF
6- Murton LF
7- Pagan CF
8- Kendall C
9- Hill P

Go Cubs!

8/05/07 NYM @ CHI Game 3 Preview!

2007-08-04T17:51:00.000-07:00

Hello folks! Once again I'm going to stray away from the previous game review and random thoughts tonight to bring up something I got in an E-mail. I recently got an E-mail saying, "Hey Matt you should have your own version of the Cubs mailbag thing and answer E-mail questions and such about stuff.". I wouldn't mind doing something like that, but I'll post up a poll and see what you folks think. Now, I don't have the extreme 'inside sources' Muskat has or anything like that, but I think I'd be able to at least give my take on things. I don't know, it's entirely up to you fans what to ask. Go Cubs and Keep the Faith!

* 8/05/07 - 7:05 PM CDT: New York Mets (62-48, 1st NLE); (32-25 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (58-51, 2nd NLC); (30-27 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 84°F
Feels like: 90°F
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Probability of Precip:30 %
Outlook: Cloudy with chance of showers and moderate winds coming in from WSW at 14 MPH (Blowing out to Right field.)
Overall: Looks to be a wet one with a nice breeze but game should get in.

Pitching Match up: Jason Marquis *RHP* (8-6, 4.22 ERA;1.32 WHIP) vs. Tom Glavine *LHP* (9-6, 4.38 ERA;1.38 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Tom Glavine-

Tom Glavine has been waiting a long time for this, 20 years to be exact. These past 11 days have to feel just as long for him. Glavine takes shot number 2 at 300 career victories tomorrow in the finale and rubber match of this 3 game set. The 41 year old is earning a cool $7.5 million this year and is in search of his 10th win of the 07' campaign. The Mets are 14-9 when this veteran lefty takes the mound this season.
Baserunners: Glavine allows base runners at a league-average rate of 1.38 per inning and strands a decent 73.3% of them. Baserunners are just 3 for 10 (.300%) against Glavine in the steals department while the crafty lefty has 2 pick offs on the year.
Contact: Glavine has a low strikeout rate of 4.05 Ks per 9 innings, but what news is this? The lefty gives up a lot of contact and has a pretty bad 21.3% line drive rate, but his hits per 9 isn't exactly terrible. He combines this with a 3.2 walks per 9 rate, which is a little up from from his last couple of seasons.
Homerun Prevention: Glavine was usually a bigger groundball pitcher in the past, but the last several years has seen his grounball rate fall. As of now, his groundball rate is 41.8% so he does give up a good amount of flyballs this year. Of those flyballs, 11.8% leave the yard: not a great mark. In 137.2 innings of work, Glavine has surrendered 18 HRs (1.18 per 9).
Overall: Overall we have an experienced and intelligent crafty left-hander who pitches to contact and allows his fair share of runners VIA both the walk and base hit. He's constantly becoming more of a flyball pitcher while his homerun prevention worsened accordingly.
Home/Road: Glavine has been terrible on the road this year with a 3-5 record and 5.53 ERA in 13 away starts. 11 of his 18 homeruns allowed have been on the road and he sports a .286 Road Opponent's batting average. In 15 career starts at Wrigley (94.1 innings), Glavine is 6-5 with a 3.43 ERA and .230 Opponent's batting average.
Career vs. opposing club: In 34 starts against Chicago, Glavine is 14-13 with a 3.64 ERA and .236 Opponent's batting average (220.1 innings.)
Season vs. opposing club: Glavine had one start against Chicago this year in New York on May 14th. In it, he went 6 innings (No decision) while surrendering 4 runs on 6 hits and4 walks to 2 strikeouts.
Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star break, Glavine is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA and .259 Opponent's batting average. In his last start at Milwaukee, Glavine went 6 strong innings surrendering just 1 earned run on 2 hits and 5 walks to 2 strikeouts.

-Jason Marquis-

Jason Marquis has been plagued with inconsistency since mid-May but is looking to use his latest quality start as a platform to get back into things. The $4.75 million dollar contact righty is looking for his 9th win on the season in tomorrow's finale. Despite Marquis being woefully inconsistent, the Cubs are 14-8 when Jason takes the mound.
Baserunners: Marquis allows baserunners at a rate of 1.32 per inning and strands a poor 69.8% of them. Runners are nearly perfect against Marquis in steals, going 12 for 13 (.923%).
Contact: Marquis has a pretty low 5.06 K's per 9 innings and is a fairly high-contact arm. Marquis does have a strong 16.5% line drive rate however, and has done a fine job of limiting hits. One of Marquis' downfalls this year is his walk rate, which is at a pretty poor 3.7 walks per 9 rate.
Homerun Prevention: The 2nd reason for Marquis' troubles this year is his poor homerun prevention. Despite being a groundball pitcher with a nice 48.1% groundball rate, Marquis has 17 homeruns surrendered in 128 innings (1.2 per 9) this year. His 12.1% HRs per fly rate definitely contributes to that, and he has surrendered at least 1 homerun in each of his last 6 starts (8 total).
Overall: Overall Marquis is a pitch-to-contact groundball righty with resurfacing control troubles and inability to stay away from the homerun ball. If he can limit the walks and homeruns, Marquis' nice hit rate would kick in and he'd potentially be a pretty good pitcher.
Home/Road: Marquis has been a better pitcher at home this year. In 12 starts at Wrigley, Marquis is 6-2 with a 3.79 ERA and .231 Opponent's batting average. 6 of his 17 homeruns have left the yard at Wrigley.
Career vs. opposing club: In 19 appearances and 12 starts against the Mets, Marquis is 5-4 with a 4.17 ERA and .270 Opponent's batting average (77.2 innings).
Season vs. opposing club: Marquis has not faced the Mets this year.
Recent: Are we seeing a trend here? In 4 starts since the All-star break, Marquis is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA and .287 Opponent's batting average. In his last start against Philadelphia, Marquis went 6 solid innings giving up 3 earned runs on 8 hits and 3 walks to 4 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs' offense put together an impressive two-out rally in game 2 of this 3 game set. They displayed patience, key hitting, ability to capitalize on opponent's mistakes, and more patience during that rally. The Cubs have the talent to score plenty of runs but there are still questions to be answered about it: Will they regain their power dimension of offense? Can they beat the crafty lefties, or even lefties at all? These Cubs will be put to the test tomorrow when a determined left-handed vet takes the mound in search of number 300.

-I- Who's hot?: Jacque Jones is 8 for his last 21 (.381) with 4 doubles and 4 RBIs.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 19 (.158). Angel hasn't seen a start in a while now either.

-III- A-Ram and out!: Aramis Ramirez is 11 for 22 (.500/.571/.955) with a double and 3 homers against Glavine lifetime. Cliff Floyd is 13 for 33 (.394/.444/.636) with a pair of doubles and homers. Derrek Lee is 15 for 52 (.288/.393/.500) with 5 doubles, 9 walks, and a pair of homers. Alfonso Soriano is 7 for 18 (.389/.476/.611) with a double, homer, and 3 stolen bases.
-IV- Common' Kendall..: Jason Kendall is 8 for 40 (.200/.220/.400) lifetime against Glavine, but has 2 homeruns. Mark DeRosa is 1 for 10 (.100/.250/.400).

-METS- The Mets threatened a fair amount of times in game 2 but never capitalized on their opportunities. To break it all down, the game was pretty much: Moises Alou - 2 vs. Chicago Cubs - 6. The Mets still have a very dangerous lineup with a patience that will surely test a wild pitcher like Marquis.

-I- The Wright way: David Wright is 6 for 17 (.353/.333/.529) lifetime against Marquis with a homer. Ramon Castro is 5 for 11 (.455/.500/1.091) with a double and 2 homers. Castillo is 7 for 19 (.368/.455/.368). Green is 7 for 23 (.304/.407/.435).
-II- Alooouuuser: Moises Alou is just 1 for 11 (.091/.231/.364) lifetime against Marquis with a homer.

-III- Who's hot?: Moises Alou is 7 for his last 14 (.500) with 2 homers and a double.
-IV- Who's not: Luis Castillo is batting 4 for 20 (.200) as a Met.

What to hope for:
- An umpire that won't squeeze the heck out of the strike zone. Glavine is a guy who can easily get around that while Marquis is a guy that would proceed to throw beach balls over the heart of the plate if that happens.

What to watch for:
- Kerry Wood has to debut tomorrow, no? The last game of this home stand, a pitcher who doesn't figure to go too long even when on, and Lou already saying the guy was going to come out in game 2: The game outcome is more important however.

- Tom Glavine goes for career win number 300 in game 3 of this 3 game set. Let's hope the Cubs help him on his way to 200 career losses.

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF (I'm risking it on Lou noticing his career numbers vs. Glavine.)
6- Fontenot 2B
7- Pagan CF
8- Hill C
9- Marquis P

Go Cubs!

8/04/07 NYM @ CHI Game 2 Preview!

2007-08-03T18:16:00.000-07:00

Instead of the usual prior game review and random thoughts I'd like to just address the Lou/9th/Dempster drama. Put yourself in Lou's shoes (Pure poetry) during the top of the 9th against the Mets with a 2-2 tie: Marmol and Howry have been used. Wood is fresh off the DL and hasn't pitched in the Majors for over a year. Wuertz is spent, he threw 2 innings in yesterday's game. Eyre's been worked the past 2 days and Ohman got shelled yesterday. Dempster didn't pitch in yesterday's game either while he hasn't allowed an earned run since June 10th. Who's pitching the 9th? I don't see why Lou is getting so much angst for going with his closer in a tie game at Wrigley during the top of the 9th against one of the NL's best offenses. Dempster had a blowup, and it's the 3rd time this has happened for him in a non-save situation. Other than these three blowups, Dempster has 17.1 innings of non-save work and hasn't allowed a run. It really stinks that Dempster had a melt-down today, I'm not going to lie. However, I'm not ready to blame Lou for this or go along with the "Cut ties with Dumpster" nonsense. Anyway, go Cubs and Keep the Faith.

* 8/04/07 - 2:55 PM CDT: New York Mets (62-47, 1st NLE); (32-24 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (57-51, 2nd NLC); (29-27 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 79°F
Feels like: 80°F
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Probability of Precip:10 %
Outlook: Partly cloudy with light breeze from ESE at 7 MPH (Coming in from right field.)
Overall: Shady cool and comfortable weather for a baseball game at Wrigley. Should be a nice lake breeze coming in.

Pitching Match up: Ted Lilly *LHP* (11-5, 3.60 ERA;1.12 WHIP) vs. John Maine *RHP* (12-5, 2.92 ERA;1.13 WHIP)

Analysis:

-John Maine-

The young break-out Maine is looking to continue going strong in a season where he could be an easy Cy Young candidate. The 26 year old is making a minuscule $380K in 07' and is in search of his 13th win. The Mets are 14-7 when Maine takes the mound.
Baserunners: Maine allows base runners at an impressive rate of 1.13 per inning and strands a strong 79% of them. Baserunners are 10 for 13 (.769%) against Maine in the running department.
Contact: Maine has a really nice 7.8 K's per 9 innings and that does do it's part in limiting contact allowed. Of the contact allowed, only 15.3% of those batted balls for line drives. With a strong K/9 and low line drive rate, Maine does a great job at limiting runners VIA the hit. Maine still has an average 3.1 walks per 9 and does get into walk trouble sometimes.
Homerun Prevention: With a 36.7% ground ball rate, Maine is a pretty big flyball pitcher. Of those flyballs, only 9.2% of them leave the yard. That said, he has a pretty good homerun prevention and has allowed 14 homers in 132.1 innings of work (0.95 per 9).
Overall: Overall we have a flyball pitcher with a good homerun and hit prevention. He has a strong strikeout dimension and a better-than-not walk rate that is more of an off and on thing.
Home/Road: Maine has been dominate on the road so far in 07'. In 10 road starts, he has a 7-1 record with a 2.59 ERA and a .194 Opponent's batting average. He's been to Wrigley once in a relief appearance and allowed no runs on 1 hit.
Career vs. opposing club: In 3 appearances and 2 starts against Chicago, Maine is 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA and .234 Opponent's batting average (13 innings.)
Season vs. opposing club: Maine had one start against Chicago this year in New York on May 15th. In it, he went 5 innings (loss) while surrendering 3 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks to 4 strikeouts.
Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star break, Maine is2-1 with a 3.97 ERA and .213 Opponent's batting average. In his last start against Washington, he went 5 shutout innings on 1 hit and 0 walks to 5 strikeouts before the game was called due to rain.

-Ted Lilly-

Ted Lilly looks to get back on track tomorrow after suffering his 1st loss since June 5th in his last start. The $5 million lefty is in search of his 12th win on the year, which would be the 4th time in his career in which he achieved that mark. The Cubs are 12-11 when Lilly takes the mound but are 6-1 in his last 7 starts.
Baserunners: Lilly allows baserunners at a strong rate of 1.12 per inning and strands 73.6% of them. Runners are 7 of 10 (.700%) against Lilly in the steals category, and he has 2 pickoffs on the year.
Contact: Lilly has a solid 7.3 K's per 9 innings so he doesn't exactly allow a ton of contact. Of contact given up, 17.7% of those batted balls go for line drives. When you combine the aforementioned dual stats, you have a guy who's alright at limiting the hits. What's been strong for Lilly this year is his 2.3 walks per 9, a mark he hasn't really seen in his career.
Homerun Prevention: With 35.1% of batted balls against Lilly taking the ground route, Lilly can be considered a big flyball pitcher. His homeruns per fly is a strong 9.4% however and his homerun prevention overall is pretty good for a flyball arm. He's allowed 16 homeruns in 137.2 innings of work (1.05 per 9) this year.
Overall: Overall Lilly is a flyball lefty with a solid strikeout rate that helps him limit contact. When he combines that lowered contact level with his strong walk rate, it reflects upon his good WHIP. Lilly has certainly improved his homerun prevention and walk rate this year to become a good #2 starter.
Home/Road: Lilly has been a better home pitcher this year overall. In 12 starts at Wrigley, Lilly is 6-4 with a 3.42 ERA and .229 Opponent's Batting Average.
Career vs. opposing club: In 3 appearances and 2 starts against the Mets, Lilly is 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA and .229 Opponent's batting average (9.2 innings).
Season vs. opposing club: Lilly has not faced the Mets this year.
Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star Break, Lilly is 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA in 25 innings of work. In his last start against Philadelphia, Lilly went 5 innings (loss) while surrendering 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks to 3 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs' offense managed to muster just 2 runs of support in game 1 of this series and looked pretty lost against El Duque. Derrek Lee can be considered "back" in my opinion when you take note of his recent power surge (Pacing to hit 20+ in the 2nd half), so that's a positive. They still have the talent to put up big offensive numbers.

-I- Who's hot?: Derrek Lee is 6 for his last 12 (.500) with 4 doubles, a homer, a stolen base, and 2 RBIs.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 19 (.158).

-III- Cliff Hanger: Cliff Floyd is 2 for 3 (.667/.667/.667) against Maine in his career. Jacque Jones is 2 for 8 (.250/.333/.625) with a homer.
-IV- A very Branyan Fonzy: Alfonso Soriano is just 2 for 15 (.133/.278/.533) in his career against Maine with 5 strikeouts, 2 walks, and both hits leaving the yard.

-METS- The Mets showed a patient side to their offense in game 1 when they drew 11 walks but didn't capitalize on them until the 9th. When rested starters such as Milledge and Alou return for game 2, the Mets will have a very scary vs. LHP lineup.

-I- Green-a-phobia v.2: Shawn Green is 2 for 4 (.500/.500/1.500) against Lilly with a homerun.
-II- Mendoza Carlos: Carlos Delgado is 2 for 10 (.200/.333/.300) lifetime against Lilly with 5 strikeouts.

-III- Who's hot?: Jose Reyes is 13 for his last 42 (.310) with 2 homers and a trio of stolen bases.
-IV- Who's not: Luis Castillo is batting just 2 for 16 (.125) as a Met.

What to hope for:
- Lilly to eat up a good amount of innings. The bullpen is spent and could put another day of rest to good use.

- The offense to remember how they beat Maine the last time they faced him. Hmm, they won without the use of a homer. How trendy.

What to watch for:
- The bullpen is spent, but there's still a guy in there with 3 days of rest going into tomorrow. Watch for the return of Kerry Wood.

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Kendall C
9- Lilly-'chiro' P

Go Cubs!

8/03/07 NYM @ CHI Game 1 Preview!

2007-08-02T19:03:00.000-07:00

The first place Chicago Cubs failed to capitalize on a great opportunity in the finale of the Phillies series. Marshall just wasn't himself and dug the Cubs a hole that they fought to get out of but couldn't. Fortunately the Brewers lost as well, and the Cubs are still atop the Division as the Mets roll into town. If there is a positive to take out of this game, it's that hopefully the Phillies offense caught fire because of the beating they gave the Cubs today and carries it over to our friends up north. After losing game 1 of this series, you have to feel good about splitting considering how hot the Phils were beforehand. Zambrano and Lilly lead off the Mets' series, Wood most likely makes his emotional return, and the Brewers continue to melt down (Aren't they fist-fighting in the dugouts now?). Feels like a really good weekend coming up, doesn't it? Keep the Faith.

* 8/03/07 - 1:20 PM CDT: New York Mets (61-47, 1st NLE); (31-24 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (57-50, T-1st NLC); (29-26 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 85°F
Feels like: 85°F
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Probability of Precip:10 %
Outlook: Sunny with light breeze from N at 7 MPH (Coming in from 3rd base dugout)
Overall: Another sunny comfortable game at Wrigley.

Pitching Match up: Carlos Zambrano *RHP* (14-7, 3.47 ERA;1.23 WHIP) vs. Orlando Hernandez *RHP* (7-4, 3.02 ERA;1.09 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Orlando Hernandez-

The 37 year old Orlando Hernandez looks to continue his strong 07' season for the Mets tomorrow in search of his 8th win. El Duque has a modest $4.5 million 2007 salary and seems to be earning every penny of it. The Mets are 11-6 when Hernandez takes the mound this year.
Baserunners: Hernandez allows base runners at a stellar rate of 1.09 per inning and strands a stunning 80% of them. Baserunners love this guy though and are 14 for 17 (.824%) against him in the steals category.
Contact: Hernandez has a strong 7.3 K's per 9 innings and limits a good amount of contact because of it. He has the best line drives per batted balls rate in the game at an amazing 12.0%. These add up to his allowance of just 73 hits in 104.1 innings. El Duque still has a shaky 3.5 walks per 9 innings, so patience is usually the best way to approach him.
Homerun Prevention: Hernandez is more of a flyball pitcher and doesn't have the best homerun prevention. With 40.6% of batted balls taking the groundball route, Hernandez allows a good amount of flyballs. Of those flies, 11.6% of them have left the yard. All together, he has 13 homeruns surrendered in 104.1 innings (1.12 per 9).
Overall: Overall we have a good flyball pitcher with a strong strikeout dimension. His ability to limit baserunners VIA the base hit is among the best in baseball right now, although he does tend to walk a handful.
Home/Road: Hernandez hasn't been as good on the road, but still has solid numbers. In 10 away starts this year, Hernandez is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA and .208 Opponent's batting average. He's been to Wrigley once in his career and surrendered 5 earned runs in 1.2 innings (27.00 ERA) in that game.
Career vs. opposing club: In 1 career starts against Chicago, Hernandez is 0-0 with a 27.00 ERA and .583 Opponent Batting Average (1.2 innings).
Season vs. opposing club: Hernandez has not faced Chicago this year.
Recent: In 4 starts since the All-star break, Hernandez is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and .163 Opponent's batting average. In his last start against Washington, he went 7 strong innings surrendering 1 earned run on just 3 hits and 2 walks to 8 strikeouts.

-Carlos Zambrano-

'Big Z' looks to help the Cubs rebound from a previous loss yet again in game 1 as he takes the mound in search of a majors-leading 15th win. Zambrano is getting a tiny $12.4 million dollar salary in 07' and the Cubs are 14-9 when Zambrano takes the mound and 9-2 since his "2nd season began".
Baserunners: Zambrano allows baserunners at a rate of 1.23 this year while stranding a solid 77.6% of them. Baserunners haven't tested Z this year, as he has 1 stolen base allowed in 1 attempt this year.
Contact: Zambrano has a strong 7.66 K's per 9 innings this year, though that rate is much higher in his "2nd season". He has a dominant 15.6% line drive percentage this year and really reflects that with his 120 hits allowed in 150.1 innings. Big Z has big walk totals however, and has a walks per 9 at 3.9 this year.
Homerun Prevention: Zambrano is pretty average when it comes to being a groundball/flyball pitcher and has a nice 44% groundball rate. His homerun prevention overall this year has been decent with an 11.0% HRs per fly rate, and he has 17 homers surrendered in 150.1 innings (1.02 per 9). However, he has just 4 homers allowed since his "2nd season" began on June 6th (76.2 innings; 0.47 per 9) and hasn't surrendered a long ball since July 8th.
Overall: Overall Zambrano is a big inning-eating power righty who gets walk-happy sometimes but limits contact and hits overall. He's more of a groundball pitcher when he's on and as of late, his homerun prevention has been stellar.
Home/Road: Zambrano hasn't been too good at home this year overall with a 4.26 ERA and 5-5 record, but has been untouchable at home since his "2nd season" began. In 5 home starts since June 6th, Zambrano is 4-1 with a 0.78 ERA.
Career vs. opposing club: In 5 appearances and 4 career starts against the Mets, Zambrano is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and .228 Opponent's batting average.
Season vs. opposing club: Zambrano has not faced the Mets this year.
Recent: Zambrano was recently honored with NL pitcher of the month for July, and deservedly so. In 6 July starts this year, Big Z went 5-1 with a 1.38 ERA and .143 Opponent's batting average.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- Although the Cubs failed to win game 4 of their series against the Phillies, they still managed to post 6 runs on 13 hits. The top 3 of Soriano, Theriot, and Lee combined for 7-14 (.500) in that game as well. The offense has been good as of late and should be fairly well rested for game 1 tomorrow. With the big bats of Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez as well the hot Ryan Theriot and clutch Mark DeRosa, the Cubs can give their guys on the mound plenty of run support.

-I- Who's hot?: Ryan Theriot is 9 for his last 23 (.391) with a homer, 2 stolen bases, and 6 runs scored.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 19 (.158).

-III- Swingin' Soriano: Alfonso Soriano is 5 for 12 (.417/.462/.917) against Hernandez with 3 doubles, a homer, and 2 stolen bags. Jacque Jones is 8 for 24 (.333/.385/.417).
-IV- No fun for Floyd: Cliff Floyd is just 1 for 5 (.200/.333/.200) against Hernandez.

-METS- Despite losing Beltran to the 15-day DL, the Mets offense has been firing on all cylinders as of late. After managing just 2 runs against the Brewers in the series opener of their 3-game set, the Mets shelled Brewer pitching for 10 runs in the last 2 games.

-I- Green-a-phobia: Shawn Green is 4 for 11 (.364/.533/.909) against Zambrano lifetime with 3 doubles and a homerun. Luis Castillo is 5 for 10 (.500/.688/.500). Carlos Delgado is 3 for 13 (.231/.412/.462).
-II- No way Jose: Jose Reyes is 2 for 10 (.200/.200/.300) against Zambrano with no stolen bases. David Wright is 1 for 9 (.111/.182/.111). Marlon Anderson is 1 for 9 (.111/.200/.111).

-III- Who's hot?: Jose Reyes is 12 for his last 37 (.324) with 2 homers and a pair of stolent bases.
-IV- Who's not: Luis Castillo hasn't fared too well as a Met so far, and is batting just 2 for 16 (.125) so far.

What to hope for:
- Age to creep up on Hernandez and remind the guy how old he really is.

- Zambrano goes deep to preserve that bullpen. They really need it and it'd probably mean a victory anyway.

What to watch for:
- The return of Kerry Wood may take place tomorrow. If so, take a moment to observe the energy jump in Wrigley when Wood trots out to the mound.

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Kendall C
9- Zambrano P

Go Cubs!

8/02/07 PHI @ CHI Game 4 Preview!

2007-08-01T19:20:00.000-07:00

Doesn't it feel great? After a season of doing nothing but looking up. After a point in late May where it looked like the season was over. After doing nothing for weeks on end but saying "Man, the Cubs are just X games out!". After many thrilling wins and heart breaking losses, we can all finally say it. The Chicago Cubs are in first place. Keep the Faith.

* 8/02/07 - 1:20 PM CDT: Philadelphia Phillies (56-51, 3rd NLE); (27-28 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (57-49, T-1st NLC); (29-25 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 89°F
Feels like: 91°F
Sunset: 8:08 PM
Probability of Precip:10 %
Outlook: Sunny with light breeze from WSW at 9 MPH (Coming in from 1st base dugout)
Overall: Another sunny comfortable game at Wrigley.

Pitching Match up: Sean Marshall *LHP* (5-4, 3.10 ERA;1.25 WHIP) vs. Kyle Lohse *RHP* (6-12, 4.58 ERA;1.34 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Kyle Lohse-

Recently acquired righty Kyle Lohse will look for his 1st win as a Phillie tomorrow in the 1st day game and the finale of this 4 game set. The $4.20 (Something's up there) million dollar man will make his first start since July 25th as a member of the Cincinnati Reds.
Baserunners: Lohse allows base runners at a rate of 1.34 per inning and strands a low 66.4% of them. Baserunners are a decent 6 of 10 (.600%) against Lohse on the base paths this year while he has just 1 pickoff.
Contact: Lohse is managing just 5.47 K's per 9 this year so he does give up a lot of contact. He sports a high 21.6% line drive percentage and the total hits given up this season (143 in 131.2 IP) reflects that. Lohse does have a low 2.26 walks per 9 so he does throw strikes. He compares pretty well statistically in this category to a right-handed Jamie Moyer.
Homerun Prevention: Considering the big-time flyball pitcher Lohse is (Just a 35.5% groundball rate), his homerun prevention isn't as bad is it could be. Although he has 16 homers given up in 131.2 innings of work(1.09 per 9), he has a pretty solid 9.6% HRs per fly rate. For a guy like Lohse, you have to give him credit for that.
Overall: Overall we have another flyball pitcher with an underwhelming strikeout prowess that pitches to contact. He still throws a lot of strikes and limits the damage VIA the walk, but his strikes do get ripped for hits more often than not. Statistically compares to a right-handed version of Jamie Moyer.
Home/Road: Lohse is terrible on the road this year with a 6.42 away ERA and a 2-9 record to show for it. In 1 career start at Wrigley (this year), he went 8 shutout innings.
Career vs. opposing club: In 3 career starts against Chicago, Lohse is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and .292 Opponent Batting Average.
Season vs. opposing club: In 2 starts against Chicago this year, Lohse is 1-0 with a 1.26 ERA.
Recent: In 4 July starts this year, Lohse went 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and .237 Opponents' batting average. In his last start against the Brewers, Lohse went 5.2 innings while allowing 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits and 0 walks to 2 strikeouts.

-Sean Marshall-

Coolcat looks to keep on cruising this year in search of his 6th win. Despite producing a 3.10 ERA, Marshall has just 5 wins in his 12 07' starts. The $400K lefty has been a victim of poor run support for a stretch but hopes the Cubs 8 run pounding at Cincinnati last Saturday carries over into his game 4 start.
Baserunners: Marshall allows baserunners at a rate of 1.25 this year while stranding a solid 77.6% of them. Baserunners are 4 for 5 (.800%) against Marshall in the running game while Sean has no pickoffs on the year.
Contact: Marshall has a solid 6.2 Ks per 9 and gives up an average amount of contact. He sports a stellar 16.7% line drive rate though and can limit the hits well when on. His 2.8 walks per 9 is pretty average but he has worked around this well so far this year.
Homerun Prevention: Save for one shelling Marshall took in Texas, his homerun prevention has been top notch. He gets a good amount of ground balls at a 47.4% rate and surrenders just 8% of his flyballs as homeruns. He has 6 homers given up on the year in 69.2 innings (0.78 per 9) this year, but has not allowed a homerun in his last 6 starts.
Overall: Overall Marshall is an average contact lefty with a good groundball rate and a knack at limiting the extra base hits.
Home/Road: Marshall is pretty solid at home this year, though he is much better on the road. In 6 home starts this year, Marshall is 2-3 with a 3.60 ERA and .259 Opponent's batting average.
Career vs. opposing club: In 1 career start against Philadelphia, Marshall went 3.1 innings giving up 6 earned runs (16.20 ERA)
Season vs. opposing club: Marshall has not faced the Phillies this year.
Recent: Marshall has been great his past 4 starts, going 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA and .236 Opponent's batting average. In his last start at Cincinnati, Marshall went 6 strong innings giving up 1 earned run on 6 hits and 1 walk to 3 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs rested a couple of key starters in game 3 and still managed to churn out 5 runs for the victory. You have to feel great about winning such a huge game knowing full well that Ramirez, Theriot, and Floyd received a nice amount of rest in the process. The offense should be locked and ready tomorrow with some big bats returning to the lineup.

-I- Who's hot?: Ryan Theriot is 7 for his last 18 (.389) with a homer, 2 stolen bases, and 6 runs scored.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 18 (.167).

-III- Killer Quartet: Alfonso Soriano is 11 for 27 (.407/.407/.704) against Lohse lifetime with 2 doubles, 2 homers, and 2 stolen bases. Mark DeRosa is 6 for 11 (.545/.614/818). Aramis Ramirez is 5 for 5 (1.000/1.000/2.000). Cliff Floyd is 3 for 8 (.375/.375/1.000).
-IV- Joker Jones: Jacque Jones is 0 for 6 (.000/.000/.000) lifetime against Lohse.

-PHILLIES- The Phillies had a lot of chances in game 3 but still managed to produce 4 runs. Despite losing key players such as Utley, Victorino, and Bourne, the Phillies still have a scary offense capable of putting many runs on the board.

-I- No sufficient sample for Phil batters against Marshall (hot)
-II- No sufficient sample for Phil batters against Marshall (cold)

-III- Who's hot?: Tadahito Iguchi continues to fill the big shoes of Chase Utley for the Phillies. Iguchi is 8 for 18 (.444) with a homer and 2 stolen bases so far with Philadelphia.
-IV- Who's not: Carlos Ruiz is 2 for his last 19 (.105).

What to hope for:
- The Killer quartet of Soriano, Ramirez, DeRosa, and Floyd continue their dominance of Kyle Lohse.

- Sean Marshall not to get chased early. Not only does it jeopardize the chance of a win, but the bullpen needs it.

What to watch for:
- The top 6 of the Cubs' order. It contains some strong numbers against Lohse as well as The hot-hitting Riot and re-surging Derrek Lee.

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Hill C
9- Marshall P

Go Cubs!

8/01/07 PHI @ CHI Game 3 Preview!

2007-07-31T18:44:00.000-07:00

Why does it feel so good when the Cubs win with Marquis on the mound? Don't you hate to have that feeling with one of the Cub pitchers? Hopefully this is the start of Marquis returning to early season form as the Cubs really need this guy to give them solid outings. Nonetheless, the Cubs took advantage of a terrible pitcher today and beat a rather hot ball club. The offense came to at the right time and once again the unlikely heros ruled the day. First off, kudos to Marquis to registering a quality start against a hot Phillies offense. He kept the team in the ballgame long enough for the offense to jump on Eaton and you really have to appreciate that from Marquis. Jacque Jones also had a nice redeemer in game 2 when he knocked a double to left that lead to 2 big runs (1 RBI and an error on the play). Finally, great job by Kendall to man up with 2 outs and the bases packed and lace a 2 run single to left center. For someone who has struggled offensively all year to come in that situation and come out with a big hit takes guts. Keep it going Kendall! Keep the Faith folks.

* 8/01/07 - 7:05 PM CDT: Philadelphia Phillies (56-50, 2nd NLE); (27-27 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (56-49, 2nd NLC); (28-25 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 89°F
Feels like: 92°F
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Probability of Precip:0 %
Outlook: Sunny with light breeze from SSE at 5 MPH (Coming in from right field)
Overall: Another sunny comfortable game at Wrigley.

Pitching Match up: Rich Hill *LHP* (6-6, 3.59 ERA;1.17 WHIP) vs. Jamie Moyer *LHP* (9-8, 4.75 ERA;1.33 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Jamie Moyer-

Jamie Moyer, the Phillies' 44 year old lefty and proud owner of a $6 million 07' salary, is looking for win number 10 this season and 226 overall tomorrow at Wrigley. The two-time 20 game winner has been left out for some beatings this season, but overall still gives a solid effort on the mound.
Baserunners: Moyer allows base runners at a rate of 1.33 per inning and strands 70.1% of them. Baserunners are 7 of 11 (.636%) against Moyer in the steals category and he has 3 pick offs on the year.
Contact: Moyer has an underwhelming 5.4 K's per 9 combined but has a solid 2.7 Walks per 9. That said, Moyer does give up a lot of contact with 19% of that contact (Almost 1 out of every 5 batted balls) going for a line drive. It all adds up to Moyer giving up a bit too many hits at a mark of 137 in 132.2 innings.
Homerun Prevention: Moyer's homerun prevention has never been too good, and this year isn't any exception. With a groundball % of 39.4%, Moyer is a big time flyball pitcher with 12.1% of those flyballs leaving the yard. In 132.2 innings of work, he has 19 homeruns surrendered (About 1.3 per 9 innings.)
Overall: Overall Moyer is a flyball pitcher that doesn't really overwhelm batters but he does throw strikes. Moyer tends to give up the long ball in bunches and can give his skipper 6 or 7 innings each time out.
Home/Road: Moyer has struggled on the road this year with a 6-6 record and a 5.05 ERA. He has a career 4.26 ERA in Wrigley field (215.1 innings).
Career vs. opposing club: In 3 career starts against Chicago, Moyer is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and .227 Opponent Batting Average.
Season vs. opposing club: Moyer has not faced the Cubs this year.
Recent: Moyer is 2-3 this July with a 6.75 ERA and .323 Opponent Batting Average. In his last start against Pittsburgh, Moyer went 7 strong innings (Win) surrendering 1 run (not earned) on 6 hits and 0 walks to 4 strikeouts.

-Rich Hill-

Rich 'Kip' Hill looks to continue his strong 07' campaign tomorrow night when he steps onto mound in search of his 7th win. Hill is earning a modest $400K this year and is really developing into what looks like the Cubs' 3rd best starter.
Baserunners: Rich Hill has been allowing baserunners at a strong rate of just 1.17 per inning. Of those runners allowed, Hill strands a stellar 80.3% of them (2nd best in the NL). Runners like to run off of Hill and have 16 of 20 (.800%) successful stolen bases.
Contact: The key to Hill's success this year is his strong strikeout rate at 8.3 K's per 9 innings. Although he has a high line drive rate of 21.9% (Tied-5th worst in the NL), the amount of bats Hill misses makes up for it. Hill also walks 3.0 batters per 9 innings, but his solid 103 hits in 123 innings of work makes up for it.
Homerun Prevention: The big chink in Hill's armor this year is his homerun prevention. Being a prominent flyball pitcher with a 35.2% ground ball rate, Hill surrenders 14.4% HRs per fly. In just 120 innings of work this year, Hill has watched 20 homeruns leave yard (1.46 per 9).
Overall: Overall Hill is flyball/strikeout pitcher with a fairly shaky walk rate but really limits the hits when he's on. Ted Lilly anyone?
Home/Road: Hill has a slightly tougher time in Wrigley with a 3-2 record and 3.71 ERA as well as .239 Opponent's Batting Average.
Career vs. opposing club: In 2 starts against the Phillies, Hill is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 11 innings of work. He's had trouble with homeruns and walks against the Phils.
Season vs. opposing club: Hill has not faced the Phillies this year.
Recent: Hill has been solid in his last 3 starts, going 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 17 K's in 19 innings. In his last start at Cincinnati, Hill went just 5 innings while allowing 2 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks to 8 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs got it done in game 2 without the use of a long ball, and you always gotta love seeing that. With the power potential this offense has, it's nice to know that they can still win ballgames without knocking 3 out all the time. If sluggers like Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano truly are regaining their power strokes, this club is going to be a very dangerous force. Now if only Cliff Floyd were to hit for some power once a while...

-I- Who's hot?: Ryan Theriot is 7 for his last 18 (.389) with a homer, 2 stolen bases, and 6 runs scored.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 17 (.176).

-III- Swingin' Soriano: Although Soriano is just 8 for 41 (.195/.209/.512), he has 4 homers and a double as well as 2 stolen bags against Moyer in his lifetime. Kendall is 8 for 25 (.320/.346/.320). Jacque Jones is 6 for 20 (.300/.391/.351).
-IV- No whammy for Rammy: Aramis Ramirez is 0 for 5 (.000/.167/.000) against Moyer in his lifetime.

-PHILLIES- The Phillies add another 2 players to the DL, this time the pair of speedsters in Victorino and Bourne. Although they have a lot of key offensive players out at the moment, the Phillies offense is still a force to be reckoned with. With Rollins and Howard leading the way along with a hot Pat Burrell, these Phils still have the ability to do some damage.

-I- Twin Bombers: Both Pat Burrell and Tadahito Iguchi are 3 for 5 (.600/.667/1.800) against Hill lifetime with 2 homeruns. Jimmy Rollins is 2 for 6 (.333/.333/1.000). Rowand is 2 for 4 (.500/.667/.750).
-II- Howard not king of the Hill: Ryan Howard is 0 for 3 (.000/.000/.000) lifetime against Hill with 2 K's.

-III- Who's hot?: Tadahito Iguchi is trying his best to pull a Chase Utley impression. Iguchi is 6 for 13 (.462) with a homer and 2 stolen bases so far with Philadelphia.
-IV- Who's not: Carlos Ruiz is 2 for his last 15 (.133).

What to hope for:
- The Cubs keep the momentum going on both sides of the ball and tee off against Moyer. When Moyer gives up homers, he gives them up in bunches.

What to watch for:
- Once again, look for the long ball. Two flyball pitchers with poor homerun prevention square off tomorrow in Wrigley against two powerful offenses. Let's see more balls stay in the bleachers tomorrow than balls thrown back, eh?

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- DeRosa 2B
6- Murton RF
7- Pagan CF
8- Kendall C
9- Hill P

Go Cubs!

7/31/07 PHI @ CHI Game 2 Preview!

2007-07-30T18:53:00.000-07:00

The Cubs got shut down by a left-handed Ace, what more is there to say? Lilly labored through 5 and got terrible run support. On the bright side of things, the bullpen did a nice job of holding the Phillies down and they're going to be called upon to do so again sometime in the future. I really think Hendry is going to make some sort of move to either get a left-handed reliever into the pen or a situational righty onto the bench to hit against the lefties. Tomorrow should be an interesting day as the deadline looms and the Cubs still sit within 1 game striking distance. The Mets pick up Luis Castillo and head to Milwaukee and can hopefully beat the struggling Brewers. If so, it's up to the Cubs as to whether or not they're going to be sharing 1st with the Crew tomorrow. They'll be facing a struggling righty and they really need to get that offense going tomorrow with Marquis on the mound. Go Cubs and Keep the Faith.

* 7/31/07 - 7:05 PM CDT: Philadelphia Phillies (56-49, 2nd NLE); (27-26 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (55-49, 2nd NLC); (27-25 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 87°F
Feels like: 89°F
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Probability of Precip:0 %
Outlook: Sunny with light breeze from E at 5 MPH (Coming in from behind home plate out to center)
Overall: Gonna be a warm but comfortable one.

Pitching Match up: Jason Marquis *RHP* (7-6, 4.20 ERA;1.30 WHIP) vs. Adam Eaton *RHP* (9-6, 5.83 ERA;1.54 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Adam Eaton-

Adam Eaton, with a $7.2 million 2007 salary, hasn't lived up to the cash he's earning. The former 1st round pick by the Phillies is back in Philadelphia looking for some way to turn his career around. Despite struggling mightily this year, Eaton is looking for his 10th win tomorrow.
Baserunners: Eaton allows base runners at a rate of 1.54 per inning and strands just 67.7% of them. Baserunners have had a hard time stealing against Eaton, going just 5 for 12 (.417%).
Contact: Eaton has a decent 5.7 K's per 9 combined with a high 3.9 Walks per 9. When you combine the amount of contact Eaton gives up with 19.7% of batted balls going for line drives, Eaton does give up plenty of hits.
Homerun Prevention: Eaton's homerun prevention is rather poor. With a groundball % of 38.3%, Eaton is a big time flyball pitcher with 12.8% of those flyballs leaving the yard. In 120.1 innings of work, he has 19 homeruns surrendered (About 1.4 per 9 innings.)
Overall: Overall you have a flyball pitcher who lost a chunk of his strikeout potential and gives up way too much contact. With a hint of wildness and poor homerun prevention, Eaton justifies his near 6 ERA.
Home/Road: Eaton has been 'better' on the road this year with a 6-2 record and a 5.40 ERA. He has a career 3.68 ERA in Wrigley field (4 starts).
Career vs. opposing club: In 8 career starts against Chicago, Eaton is 5-2 with a 4.31 ERA and .257 Opponent Batting Average.
Season vs. opposing club: Eaton has not faced the Cubs this year.
Recent: Eaton is 2-1 this July with a 6.11 ERA and .322 Opponent Batting Average. In his last start against Washington, Eaton went 6.1 innings (No Decision) giving up 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 0 walks to 2 strikeouts.

-Jason Marquis-

Jason Marquis is really struggling with the Cubs right now. Since early June, Marquis has seen his ERA bloat from 2.84 to his current mark of 4.20. The $4.75 million dollar man seems dead set on matching up his ERA with his salary as of late.
Baserunners: Marquis allows baserunners at a rate of 1.3 per inning, though that has been increasing recently. Of those runners he allows, just 68.9% of them have been stranded. Runners also love to run on Marquis with a mark of 10 out of 11 successful steals (.909%).
Contact: With a low 5 K's per 9, Marquis surely finds a lot of bats. With the amount of contact he gives up, his 3.6 walks per 9 gets him into a lot of trouble. With a solid Line Drive rate of 16.6%, Marquis can focus more so on limiting the walks.
Homerun Prevention: Marquis is generally a groundball pitcher with a 47.8% groundball percentage this year, but doesn't sport good homerun prevention because of it. He still has a 12.0% HRs per fly (Rising lately) and has given up 16 homeruns in 122 innings.
Overall: Overall Marquis is a contact pitcher with a good groundball rate but gets into a boatload of trouble with his walk totals and inability to keep flyballs in the park. With the Phillies likely to run a marathon off of him, Marquis needs to shore up his location in the zone quickly and keep the ball low.
Home/Road: Marquis has been a better pitcher at Home this year with a 5-2 record and a 3.72 ERA. He has a strong WHIP of 1.15 at home supported by a nice .223 Opponent Batting Average and a 6 K/9.
Career vs. opposing club: In 16 appearances and 9 starts against the Phillies, Marquis is 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 60 innings of work.
Season vs. opposing club: Marquis has not faced the Phillies this year.
Recent: In the 2nd half so far, Marquis is 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA in 3 starts. In his last start at St.Louis, Marquis went 5 innings (Loss) while allowing 6 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks to 1 strikeout.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs continued their struggles against left-handed pitchers in game 1 and managed just 1 run off the Theriot solo shot. Luckily for the Cubs, they'll be facing a righty in game 2 and hopefully can get back on track. Nevertheless, the offense struggled in game 1 and needs to find a way to beat left-handers or they won't be getting too far in 07'. With the on-paper talent the Cubs have, they really should be better against lefties anyways. Overall, the Cubs still have the offensive talent and what looks like a reviving power dimension to put up big numbers on the board.

-I- Who's hot?: Ryan Theriot is 6 for his last 15 (.400) with a homer, 2 stolen bases, and 5 runs scored.
-II- Who's not?: Angel Pagan is 3 for his last 17 (.176). It doesn't look like he's responding well to the increased bench time.

-III- All or nothing: Derrek Lee is just 3 for 13 (.231/.231/.692) against Eaton lifetime, but 2 of those hits were round-trippers. Jason Kendall is 4 for 10 (.400/.500/.600) with a triple.
-IV- Ramirez 'Eaton' up: Aramis Ramirez is just 3 for 16 (.188/.235/.438) against Eaton in his lifetime.

-PHILLIES- The Phillies took another hit or two on the injury side of things when speedsters Victorino and Bourne went down with apparent leg injuries. Despite the injuries, the Phillies still sport an intimidating offense with the 30/30-type Rollins and the powerhouse of Ryan Howard. Although the Phillies managed just 4 runs in game 1, it was against a hot left-handed starter in Lilly. With the contact righty Marquis looming in game 2, the Phillies can still put up some huge numbers in a hurry.

-I- BB Burrell: Pat Burrell is 8 for 25 (.320/.469/.400) against Marquis with a pair of doubles and 7 walks. Tadahito Iguchi is 4 for 6 (.667/.714/.833). Chris Coste is 3 for 3 (1.000/1.000/1.000). Ryan Howard is 2 for 4 (.500/.667/.500).
-II- Jumblin' Jimmy: Jimmy Rollins is just 3 for 28 (.107/.219/.107) lifetime against Marquis with 2 of 4 successful steals (.500%).

-III- Who's hot?: Jimmy Rollins has a 10 game hitting streak that has him batting 18 for 46 (.391) with 2 doubles, 4 triples, 2 homers, and 3 stolen bases.
-IV- Who's not: Carlos Ruiz is 2 for his last 15 (.133).

What to hope for:
- The Cubs jump all over Eaton early and often as Marquis against the Philadelphia offense doesn't look like a good match-up to me.

What to watch for:
- The long balls. Two pitchers with poor homerun prevention face off tomorrow against two big-time power potential offenses. Phillies have more a running game option against Marquis while the Cubs have more of a Power game option against Eaton with the wind blowing out.

Projected Lineup:
1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Hill C
9- Marquis P

Go Cubs!

7/30/07 PHI @ CHI Game 1 Preview!

2007-07-29T14:43:00.000-07:00

How many of you ever imagined that the Cubs would be 0.5 games out before August back in late May? It's still tough to believe the drastic full circle the Cubs turned after a dirt-kicking tirade by their skipper. Despite a little hiccup in the Cubs' play recently, they've gained 2 games on the 'Crew during this road trip. Hey, if the Cubs keep taking series like this the days of looking up at Milwaukee so far this year are over. Anyway, another solid win today and a dominant performance by Zambrano. Let's hope that ball off his foot doesn't cause anything serious and he can come back strong for his start against the Mets. Soriano and Lee have seemingly found their power strokes again (Lee with 11 of 25+ In my opinion) and just in time, as this Home stand beckons a pair of tough teams. The Phillies step to the plate first and they're En Feugo at the moment, but the loss of Chase Utley is something that'll catch up to them. The only question is, how soon? Bring it on home Cubbies and Keep the Faith!

* 7/30/07 - 6:05 PM CDT: Philadelphia Phillies (55-49, 2nd NLE); (26-26 Road W-L) @ Chicago Cubs (55-48, 2nd NLC); (27-24 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Daytime High: 86°F
Overnight Low: 66°F
Sunset: 8:11 PM
Probability of Precip:0 %
Outlook: Sunny with light breeze from NE at 9 MPH (Coming in from Right Center Field)
Overall: Nice comfortable Sunny day with that Wrigley breeze.

Pitching Match up: Ted Lilly *LHP* (11-4, 3.46 ERA;1.09 WHIP) vs. Cole Hamels *LHP* (11-5, 3.63 ERA;1.18 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Cole Hamels: Cole Hamels, the Phillies' left-handed changeup artist and arguable staff ace, heads to the North side tomorrow in search of his 12th win. Hamels has a deceptive delivery with a changeup that some consider the best in the majors right now. Hamels has a destructive 8.76 strikeouts per 9 innings (Among the best in the NL) and walks a rather low 2.1 batters per 9. He allows base runners at a rate of 1.18 per inning while stranding a strong 79.3% of them. He gives up his fair share of fly balls with a 40.7% ground ball percentage and if there is one downfall for Hamels, It's his homerun prevention. Hamels allows a NL worst 15.4% HRs per Fly balls and has a whopping 22 homeruns given up in 138.2 innings. The left hander has also allowed 11 stolen bases in 13 attempts (.846%), so runners like getting on base against this guy. His line drive percentage is nothing exploitable at 18.4% per batted balls; Overall Hamels is a tough lefty with a little too much of his contact given up going for extra base hits. In 11 road starts this year, Hamels is 5-3 with a 3.84 ERA and a .264 opposing batting average. In his career 2 starts against Chicago, Hamels is 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA in 9 innings of work. He has faced the Cubs this year, going 7 innings strong while allowing 2 earned runs on 7 hits and 2 walks to 7 strikeouts on the way to a win. In his last start against Washington, Hamels went 7 innings allowing 2 earned runs on 6 hits and a walk to 6 strikeouts while picking up the No Decision.

-Ted Lilly: Lilly continues to justify the multi-year deal he received prior to the 07' season and then some. Winner of his last 6 starts and last 7 decisions, Lilly looks to build upon his dominant July. So far this month, Lilly has a 5-0 record with a 1.83 ERA in 5 starts. Lilly's recent dominance arises from the low number of base runners he has been allowing. So far this year, Lilly has a strong 1.09 base runners allowed per inning while he stranded 73% of them. Lilly is still the strikeout (7.3 per 9) and flyball (35.7% ground balls;17.2% line drives) pitcher he has always been, but his sudden success can be attributed to 3 key changes from his career norm. The first is a pretty obvious switch from the AL East the NL central where he no longer has to face the powerhouses of the AL regularly. The 2nd key is the sharp fall in amount of walks he's given up; Lilly allows an average 2.17 walks per nine this year, a fall of almost 2 walks per 9 from his career norm. Finally, Lilly's homerun prevention has improved rather nicely this year. His HRs per fly has fallen from a 13.3% rate to a pretty solid 8.7% rate. You mix all these improvements together and not only is Lilly's contract justified, but his 11-4 record is as well. In 11 Home starts this year, Lilly has a 6-3 record with a 3.16 ERA and .221 opposing batting average. In 1 career start against the Phillies (Not in 07'), Lilly went 8 innings while allowing just 1 earned run on 3 hits and a walk to 6 strikeouts while picking up the win. In his last start at St.Louis, Lilly went 7 strong innings giving up 1 earned run on 6 hits and 3 walks to 2 strikeouts while picking up his 7th straight winning decision.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs' offense sure picked a good time to find their power again. With the Phillies and Mets coming to town, the Cubs need that power dimension of their offense to stick around. Leading the power resurgence is Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano, both of whom have seemingly regained their power strokes. With those bats accompanied by other big bats and clutch hitters such as Aramis Ramirez, Mark DeRosa, and the speedy Ryan Theriot, the Cubs have an offense capable of putting up some big numbers.

-I- Who's hot?: Derrek Lee is 11 for his last 31 (.344) with 5 homers and 11 RBIs. He's a homer away from matching his 1st half total of 6.
-II- Who's not?: Mike Fontenot is barely over the Mendoza line in July, batting .203 with 5 RBIs.

-III- Old buddies: Alfonso Soriano, former Washing National, is 5 for 16 (.313/.353/.938) against Hamels lifetime with a double, 3 homers, and 2 stolen bags. Aramis Ramirez is 3 for 5 (.600/.600/1.600) with a triple and a homer. Murton is 3 for 4 (.750/.800/.750). Theriot is 3 for 6 (.500/.500/.667).
-IV- No love for Lee: Derrek Lee is 0 for 3 (.000/.000/.000) against Hamels lifetime.

-PHILLIES- The Phillies' offense is nothing short of red-hot. Despite losing Chase Utley to an injury, the Phillies continue to roll. With one-man offensive forces such as Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard and the reviving bat of Pat Burrell, the Phillies have a tough offense to try and contain.

-I- Just in time: Newly acquired 2nd baseman Tagahito Iguchi is 2 for 7 (.286/.375/.714) lifetime against Lilly with a homer. Aaron Rowand is 4 for 13 (.308/.400/.308). Abraham Nunez is 3 for 7 (.429/.429/.571).
-II- Bumbling Barajas: Rod Barajas is 0 for 8 (.000/.000/.000) lifetime against Lilly. Jimmy Rollins is 0 for 4 (.000/.000/.000). Pat Burrell is 0 for 3 (.000/.000/.000).

-III- Who's hot?: Ryan Howard is 20 for 55 in this 2nd half (.351) with 8 homers and 19 RBIs
-IV- Who's not: Abraham Nunez is 0 for his last 15 (.000).

What to hope for:
- Lilly keeps the ball down and stays true to his dominant July and low WHIP. The Phillie offense is no joke.

What to watch for:
- The steals. The Cubs are going to have to open up the running game against Hamels and if Kendall is starting tomorrow, the Phillies have some big-time (Rollins, Victorino, Bourne) stolen base threats to watch out for.

Projected Lineup:

1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- DeRosa 2B
6- Murton RF
7- Pagan CF
8- Kendall C
9- Lilly P

Go Cubs!

7/29/07 CHI @ CIN Game 3 Preview!

2007-07-28T18:28:00.000-07:00

Alright so the Cubs got a win in a game that Harang started in - I'll take it! Things are looking up yet again, aren't they? With the Brewers suffering a double-header sweep and worsening yet on the road, the Cubs are all of a sudden 1.5 games out. I know things have been a little down as of late but the Cubs continue to gain ground on the Brewers and that is all that matters right now. With Lee getting that power stroke back and Soriano having a multi-homer slump buster in game 2, you have to feel pretty good about the Cubs' position. Speaking of Lee, I want to go on record here and call for 25+ homeruns by the end of the regular season. He's been heating up recently and looks really good at the plate. I'm sure none of you would mind Lee smacking another 15 homers or so either! If the Cubs get that power dimension of their offense back soon, look out! Oh yea, keep an eye on the trade front as it seems the waters are stirring. Keep the Faith.

* 7/29/07 - 12:15 PM CDT: Chicago Cubs (54-48, 2nd NLC); (27-24 Road W-L) @ Cincinnati Reds (45-60, 5th NLC); (24-28 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 82°F
Feels like: 86°F
Sunset: 8:53 PM
Probability of Precip:10 %
Outlook: Mostly Sunny with light breeze from NE at 9 MPH (From 1st base side to 3rd base side)
Overall: Looks to be a comfortable sunny day with a light breeze.

Pitching Match up: Carlos Zambrano *RHP* (13-7, 3.65 ERA;1.26 WHIP) vs. Matt Belisle *RHP* (5-7, 5.28 ERA;1.45 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Matt Belisle: Belisle, a reliever turned starter in this 07' season, is still scheduled to pitch the finale of this series. This Texan righty has struggled mightily for a while now, posting a 0-3 record with an 8.63 ERA in 9 starts since the beginning of June. Belisle's first problem is the amount of hits he's given up. Despite a rather strong 2.1 Walks/per 9, Belisle allows base runners at a 1.45 per inning rate while stranding just 65.7% of them. The second problem for Belisle is his poor homerun prevention; Belisle has a 43.6% ground ball % and he allows his share of fly balls of which 13.2% of them leave the yard. Belisle also allows 22.2% line drives per batted balls which isn't a desirable number for a pitcher who gets a lot of contact (A 6.2 Ks per 9 and 2.1 walks per 9 makes for a good amount of contact). Belisle is 1-6 at home this year with a 6.22 ERA and a hefty .316 Opposing Batting Average. In his career against the Cubs (12 appearances; 1 start), Belisle is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA in 16.2 innings. He has not faced the Cubs this year. In his last start against the Brewers, Belisle lasted just 3.2 innings while surrendering 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks to 3 strikeouts.

-Carlos Zambrano: Zambrano continues his bounce-back campaign in tomorrow's rubber match and has a decent shot at winning 20 games. While Belisle worsened since early June, his opponent has done quite the opposite. In 11 starts spanning over June and July, Zambrano is 8-3 with a 2.19 ERA. The hard-throwing Venezuelan has a 7.69 Ks per 9 this year with a wild 3.90 Walks per 9. Keep in mind, however, that Zambrano's horrible April and May still have profound effect on Z's numbers. Zambrano allows base runners at a rate of 1.26 per inning while stranding 76.9% of them. Zambrano's ground ball % has dipped to 44% this year while he allows 11.3 % HRs per fly. His homerun prevention has been very good as of late however. Of the contact Zambrano allows, only 15.8% of those batted balls are line drives (5th best in the NL). Zambrano has chalked up 143 innings of work this year while throwing a pretty high 4.1 Pitches per plate appearance. In 11 starts on the road this year, Zambrano is 8-2 with a 3.11 ERA and a .221 Opposing Batting Average. In his career against Cincinnati (23 Apps;19 Starts), Zambrano has an 8-7 record with a 3.39 ERA in 124.2 Innings of work. In 2 starts against the Red this year (Both in April), Zambrano is 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA. In his last start at St.Louis, Zambrano went 6.1 innings while allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 3 walks to 5 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs' O showed some finally showed some thump in game 2 and in general had a good offensive day. Lee is definitely coming around while Soriano may be as well (Talk about streaky). If the Cubs can regain the power dimension of their offense, they are going to score a lot of runs. If there has to be a negative, It'll have to be on the sloppy base running. If Sweet Lou has no voice tomorrow, you'll know why.

-I- Who's hot?: Derrek Lee is starting to come around, especially in the power category. Lee is 10 for his last 27 (.370) with 4 homers and 9 RBIs.
-II- Who's not?: Aramis Ramirez is 1 for his last 7 (.143) and has 1 RBI since July 22nd. A day off should do him good.

-III- Lee Lifts off: Derrek Lee is 3 for 4 (.750/.800/1.750) lifetime against Belisle with a double and a homerun. Aramis Ramirez is 2 for 7 (.286/.286/1.143) with 2 homers.
-IV- Reeking Red head: Murton is 0 for 3 (.000) lifetime against Belisle.

-REDS- The red-hot Reds' offense was cooled off in game 2 of this 3 game set but still has some hot bats and big mashers to put up some big numbers. Griffey Jr. should be returning to the lineup tomorrow to face off against Carlos Zambrano.

-I- Over and Dunn with: While Adam Dunn is just 11 for 42 (.262/.396/.690) lifetime against Zambrano, 6 of those hits were round-trippers. Griffey Jr. is 9 for 21 (.429/.520/.905). Jeff Conine is 5 for 9 (.556/.556/.667).
-II- No deal for Freel: Ryan Freel is just 3 for 16 (.188/.350/.188) lifetime against Zambrano. Valentin is 3 for 12 (.250/.250/.333). Phillips is 2 for 13 (.154/.313/.462). Ross is 2 for 12 (.167/.286/.667).

-III- Who's hot?: Jeff Keppinger is 11 for his last 27 (.407) with a homer and 7 RBIs.
-IV- Who's not: Griffey Jr. is 5 for his last 33 (.151) with a homer and 2 RBIs.

What to hope for:
- Zambrano stays hot while Belisle stays cold. Let's keep it trendy :)

What to watch for:
- What's the deal with Murton in and out of the lineup? Trade? Illness? Injury? Call-up? This is probably answered before I even post this preview...

Projected Lineup:

1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- DeRosa 2B
6- Murton RF
7- Jones CF
8- Hill C
9- Zambrano P

Go Cubs!

7/28/07 CHI @ CIN Game 2 Preview!

2007-07-27T18:29:00.000-07:00

Well it finally seems as if the streaking Cubs are hitting a little funk. Everything was going wrong until the top of 9th when the team showed they still have the fire to go out and fight through all the downs. The offense is surely slacking now, but the 9th inning outburst may be a turning point for these bats. They really need that too as it's only going to get harder tomorrow night. The bullpen is looking shaky all of a sudden but it's not this bad and we should have faith in those guys to fix their problems. The bullpen didn't step-up today while the offense didn't put things together until the last frame. We've seen what this team is capable of and tonight they at least showed they wouldn't roll over and die when all seemed lost. The talent is there, the desire is there, and the attitude remains. They gotta dig in, look ahead, and go out fighting tomorrow. Keep the faith.

* 7/28/07 - 6:10 PM CDT: Chicago Cubs (53-48, 2nd NLC); (26-24 Road W-L) @ Cincinnati Reds (45-59, 5th NLC); (24-27 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 83°F
Feels like: 88°F
Sunset: 8:54 PM
Probability of Precip:30 %
Outlook: Mostly Cloudy with chance of isolated T-storms. Wind coming in from NE at 7 MPH (From 1st base dugout to left field)
Overall: Looks to be a better night for baseball than game 1 was - shouldn't be any delays but may be wet.

Pitching Match up: Sean Marshall *LHP* (4-4, 3.25 ERA;1.26 WHIP) vs. Aaron Harang *RHP* (10-2, 3.45 ERA;1.18 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Aaron Harang: There's usually two things guaranteed when Harang steps on the mound: He's going to go deep and he's going to give the opposing team a hard time. This towering righty is everything that comes to mind when you think of a staff horse. Harang has a strong 8.2 Ks/per 9 and a really nice 2.3 Walks/per nine. Harang is a bit of a flyball pitcher with a 40.5% grounball %, but has a 7.1% HRs per fly rate (7th In the National league) so his homerun prevention is pretty good. The thing that stands out with Harang is how deep the man can actually go into the game. He leads the league in innings pitched with 151 1/3 IP and averages about 3.9 Pitches per Plate Appearance. Harang is 5-1 at home this year with a 3.00 ERA in 11 starts. In his 11 career starts against Chicago, Harang is 6-1 with a 4.23 ERA. In two starts this year against the Cubs, Harang is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA (He shut them out at home though). In his last start against the Brewers, Harang went 10 complete innings while allowing just 1 earned run on 7 hits and no walks to 10 strikeouts.

-Sean Marshall: Coolcat continues his '07 campaign tomorrow looking his first win in over a month. Despite not having a win since June 24th, Marshall's numbers remain pretty solid. He's allowed base runners a 1.26 per inning rate, but strands 76.8% of them. The 6 foot 7 lefty is in between when you talk about being a flyball or a groundball pitcher; His 48.7% groundball % is complimented well by a 8.9% HRs per fly. All in all, Marshall's homerun prevention has been stellar save for a blowup in Texas in which he allowed 3 long balls. Marshall's line drive % is 5th best in the NL at 15.7%. His 6.4 K/per 9 is rather average while he has had some control issues with a 3.5 BB/per 9. Overall, Marshall is a soft tossing lefty who limits the big hits for the most part but walks a bit too many batters for the amount of contact he gives up. On the road this year, Marshall is 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA while he has never been at the G.A.B or faced the Reds. In his last start against Arizona. Marshall suffered the loss while going 6 strong innings and allowing just 1 earned run on 5 hits and 2 walks to 5 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- To put it simply, the Cubs' offense hasn't been getting the job done. Guys are out there hacking away at the plate like a bunch of lumberjacks. On the bright side, the offense really came to in the final frame of game 1 and hopefully for them they can carry that over into game 2 and get things going. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some kind of shakeup in the lineup tomorrow, I think Lou is going to try his damnedest to stop the bleeding offensively.

-I- Who's hot?: It's getting tough to hand this award out as the options aren't really as stand-out as they have been recently. Im going to give this DeRosa who returned from his
-II- Who's not?: Alfonso Soriano is 4 for his last 29 (.138) with 1 run scored and nary an RBI. His defense has been sloppy as well recently.. I'm finally going to agree with the Cubs' MB on this one - Soriano needs to ride the pine tomorrow.

-III- Lee Loves it: Derrek Lee is 10 for 28 (.357/.419/.643) against Harang with 2 doubles, 2 homers, and 3 walks. Jacque Jones is 4 for 11 (.364/.385/.455). Matt Murton is 4 for 13 (.308/.308/.769).
-IV- Flailing Floyd: Cliff Floyd is 1 for 8 (.125/.222/.125) against Harang lifetime. Soriano is 2 for 10 (.200/.200/.300). Ronny Cedeno is 1 for 9 (.111/.111/.111).

-REDS- The Red's offense hasn't been as prolific as some have been as of late, but they have the timely hitting and consistency to back up how well they're playing right now. How many game-ending RBIs have they had this past week or so? These Reds may not be pulling off Yankees @ Tampa numbers but the timely hitting and 'getting enough to win' idea is strong for them at the moment. A 21-7 win is no better than a 5-4 win with a walk-off single to win it: A win is a win and the Reds are doing a lot of it currently.

-I- & -II-: Reds haven't faced Marshall.

-III- Who's hot?: Jeff Keppinger is 11 for last 26 (.423) with a homer and 8 RBIs.
-IV- Who's not: Griffey Jr. is 5 for his last 32 (.156) with a homer and 2 RBIs. He has been getting the production as of late and is still getting on base VIA the walks.

What to hope for:
- Cubs' offense remembers what worked in the top of the 9th in game 1 and carry over to today.

What to watch for:
- I have the feeling there's going to be a slight lineup shakeup, be it Soriano finally sitting out for a day or Murton getting a start against the righty.

Projected Lineup: (I admit I'm going out on a limb and a gut feeling on this one)

1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Murton RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Hill C
9- Marshall P

Go Cubs!

7/27/07 CHI @ CIN Game 1 Preview!

2007-07-26T16:26:00.000-07:00

So the Cubs failed to pick up the sweep in their last game. They still didn't lose any ground and after all, a series win is a series win. The club just has to focus on winning series after series and pretty soon it could lead one from being 7.5 out of 1st to just 2.0 games out of 1st. The Cubs need to focus on bouncing back tomorrow and taking the series opener. And for the fans: Just remember how bad it was before June (Seems like years ago too). This is a different ball club with a different attitude and the air about them that makes you feel like they could win every game. Sadly this is baseball, and winning every game just doesn't happen. Gather yourselves together, take it a game at a time, and keep the faith!

* 7/27/07 - 6:10 PM CDT: Chicago Cubs (53-47, 2nd NLC); (26-23 Road W-L) @ Cincinnati Reds (44-59, 5th NLC); (23-27 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 81°F
Feels like: 85°F
Sunset: 8:55 PM
Probability of Precip:50 %
Outlook: Chance of scattered thunder-storms throughout the day with wind blowing in from SW at 9 MPH (Coming in from right field foul pole to 3rd base dugout.)
Overall: Looks to be cloudy and wet with comfortable temperatures.

Pitching Match up: Rich Hill *LHP* (6-6, 3.58 ERA;1.14 WHIP) vs. Bronson Arroyo *RHP* (4-11, 4.58 ERA;1.45 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Bronson Arroyo: When Bronson Arroyo came over to the Reds in 2006, nobody was prepared for the dominant season that he embarked on. Nowadays, nobody was prepared for how poorly he would pitch so far this year. With a 4-11 record and a 4.58 ERA, it wouldn't be ignorant to say that the NL has found out Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo is a big time fly ball pitcher with just a 34% groundball percentage. His homerun prevention is pretty good at 8.0% HRs per Flys when you consider his home park and amount of fly balls given up. Arroyo gives up a ton of line drives at a 22.1% rate - not that far behind Looper whom the Cubs faced in their last game. Arroyo allows base runners at a 1.45 per inning rate and strands 69.0% of them this year. His K/9 is pretty solid at 6.36 K/per 9, but his walk rate is up this year at 3.08 Walks/per 9. Overall, you have an inning-eating fly ball/line drive who gives up far too many base runners this year and suffers because of it. Arroyo is 2-3 at home this year with a 5.96 ERA in 9 starts (51.1 innings). Arroyo has a 4-5 record against Chicago in his lifetime with a 3.07 ERA; He's 0-2 against them this year (2 starts) with a 3.95 ERA. In his last start at Florida, Arroyo suffered the loss while giving up 4 earned runs on 8 hits (2 homers) and 4 walks to 6 strikeouts.

-Rich Hill: It's common knowledge now that Rich Hill has a pretty good Kip from Napoleon Dynamite impression. The real question is: Which Rich Hill is going to show up at the ballpark tomorrow? Hill is prone to having melt-downs here and there, as many pitchers are, but overall his numbers remain solid. The main problem with Rich Hill is homerun prevention: Hill is a fly ball pitcher with a 35.0% ground ball percentage but also has a 14.2% HRs per Fly (3rd worst in the NL). This usually leads to a handful of homeruns, which Rich Hill (19 in 118 innings) surely has. Hill also has a 21.8% line drive percentage which is pretty high and right around what Arroyo has. Boy, two fly ball/line drive pitchers facing off tomorrow in the Great American Ballpark... On the bright side, Hill allows base runners at a very good 1.14 per inning rate while he strands 79.4% of them (3rd best in the NL behind Chuck James and John Smoltz). Hill also has a stellar 8.0 K's/per 9, which is among the best in the NL. Hill also allows 2.9 walks/per 9 as well, which isn't that bad. Hill is 3-4 on the road this year with a 3.48 ERA and has a 7.20 ERA lifetime ERA at the G.A.Ballpark (1 start - 5 innings). In his career against the Reds, Hill has a 2-2 record with a 4.44 ERA in 4 career starts. He has faced them once this year at Wrigley, shutting them down over 7 innings on just 3 hits and 4 walks to 4 strikeouts. In last start against Arizona, Hill went 6 innings and allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits and 4 walks to 6 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- The Cubs have been hitting the ball well as of late, but they just don't seem to score a lot from those hits. In their 3 game series against the Cardinals, the Cubs managed 31 hits leading to 12 runs scored. However, 17 hits led to just 5 runs in games 1 and 3 combined. If one positive is to come out of this, it's that the Cubs have shown they can score enough runs to win the ball game without the homerun as of late. Another good thing to bring up is that Derrek Lee has homered again, sending his latest home run to the opposite field. If Lee gets some of that power back, the Cubs have a very capable offense.

-I- Who's hot?: What the heck, Give this one to Floyd. Floyd seems to be warming up, hitting 4 for last 8 (.500) and really crushing some of those hits.
-II- Who's not?: Alfonso Soriano is 4 for his last 24 (.167) with 1 run scored and nary an RBI. His defense has been sloppy as well recently..

-III- A Floyd Force: Cliff Floyd is 5 for 12 (.417/.461/.750) lifetime against Arroyo with a double, homer, and a walk. Aramis Ramirez is 7 for 20 (.350/.409/.550).
-IV- Joke Jones: Jones is 4 for 25 (.160/.192/.200) lifetime against Arroyo with 4 strikeouts. Soriano is 4 for 23 (.174/.167/.261). Lee is 4 for 16 (.250/.368/.438). Cedeno is 3 for 15 (.200/.235/.267)

-REDS- The Reds' offense has been on as of late. In their last two games against the Brewers, the Reds have manged to score 13 runs. With the power bats of Griffey and Dunn anchoring the middle of that Reds lineup along with the speedy breakout offensive force Brandon Phillips, the Reds have an offense capable of putting up big numbers on the scoreboard in a hurry.

-I- Hopin' on Hopper: Norris Hopper is 2 for 6 (.333/.333/.833) lifetime against Rich Hill with 1 home run.
-II- Dunnce: Adam Dunn hasn't quite figured out Rich Hill yet: He's 2 for 10 (.200/.273/.200) lifetime against Hill with 2 strikeouts. Edwin Encarnacion is 1 for 8 (.125/.364/.500). Ryan Freel is 1 for 7 (.143/.33/.571). David Ross is 0 for 7 (.000). Brandon Phillips is 2 for 9 (.222/.222/.333). Griffey Jr. is 1 for 4 (.250/.400/.250).

-III- Who's hot?: Jeff Keppinger is 9 for last 23 (.391) with a homer and 7 RBIs.
-IV- Who's not: Griffey Jr. is 5 for his last 30 (.167) with a homer and 2 RBIs. However, 3 of those hits, the homerun, and the 2 RBIs came in Griffey's last game.

What to hope for:
- Hill keeps the ball down and doesn't throw those flat curves that usually get crushed.

What to watch for:
- Plenty of fly balls, line drives, and infielders falling asleep on the field.

Projected Lineup:

1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- DeRosa 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Kendall C
9- Hill P

Go Cubs!

7/26/07 CHI @ STL Game 3 Preview!

2007-07-26T15:27:00.002-07:00

Those back-to-back losses to Arizona sure seem like a distant memory now. This team has guts; they know how to stop the bleeding and bounce back before much damage can be done. Teams are going to lose ball games, but good teams are the ones that can forget about those losses and come back swinging the next day. The Chicago Cubs are a good team. On a another note, what has gotten in to Lilly? Ted is now 5-0 in July and has 11 wins in total, making the Cubs' 1-2 punch the winningest 1-2 in the NL. These Cubs have a pretty darn good 1-2 punch and hopefully they can remain the only ball club with all 5 starters sporting a sub-4 ERA tomorrow. You want to know one of the biggest reasons why I think the Cubs can overtake the division? Check out these road records:
MIL - 20-28
CHC - 26-22
While the Cubs are going just fine on the road right now, the Brewers continue to have road woes. Sure they have a great Home record, but that's more likely to fall than their road record improving. They got the series win, let's pray they can pull off the sweep now! Go Cubs and keep the faith!

* 7/24/07 - 7:10 PM CDT: Chicago Cubs (53-46, 2nd NLC); (26-22 Road W-L) @ St.Louis Cardinals (45-52, 3rd NLC); (21-24 Home W-L)

-Weather Forecast-
Forecast : 89°F
Feels like: 92°F
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Probability of Precip:10 %
Outlook: Mostly sunny with winds coming from the SSW at 12 MPH (Wind blowing in from Right center).
Overall: It looks to be another beautiful breezy night for baseball.

Pitching Match up: Jason Marquis *RHP* (7-5, 3.92 ERA;1.27 WHIP) vs. Braden Looper *RHP* (7-8, 5.09 ERA;1.43 WHIP)

Analysis:

-Braden Looper: Looper, another reliever-turned-starter, hasn't fared as well as fellow reliever-turned-starter Wainwright. Looper's allows base runners at nearly the same rate Wainwright does, a 1.43 per inning clip. Looper is a pitch-to-contact type of pitcher with a low 4.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Despite being a contact pitcher, Looper's HR prevention is pretty good with an 8.7% HR per fly rate complimented by a 45.4% Ground ball %. So why is Looper doing so poorly this year? Well, Looper leads the majors with a 23% line drive percentage. That means that nearly 1 out every 4 batted balls against Looper is a line drive. This'll pile up to many basehits and doubles, which Looper shows VIA the 115 hits to 104.1 Innings pitched. Looper also has a poor left on base % at 64.6%. Looper is much better at home this year, sporting a 3-3 record and 3.83 ERA. In his career 33 appearances against the Cubs (1 start), Looper is 2-2 with a 2.62 ERA. That one start did take place at Wrigley this year with Looper going 7 strong innings while allowing just 1 earned run on 5 hits and 2 walks to 5 strikeouts. In his last start at Atlanta, Looper was absolutely shelled; He managed just 2.2 innings while surrendering 7 earned runs on 10 hits and 1 walk to 3 strikeouts.

-Jason Marquis: Jason Marquis returns to St.Louis to face his old ball club yet again. Things weren't so great for Jason last year in St.Louis, but he's returned this year in the rival's uniform as an improved pitcher. Marquis has struggled from inconsistency as of late, but had a promising outing his last time out against Arizona. Jason is an average groundball to fly ball pitcher but leans more towards a ground ball pitcher with a 47.9% groundball percentage. His homerun prevention hasn't been great at 10.9% HRs per fly and he's allowed 14 HRs on the year. Marquis has struggled with control off and on this year with a 3.5 BB/9 while posting a 5.2 K/9. He's 2-3 on the road this year with a 4.20 ERA. He's been lights out against his old ball club in his career with a 3-0 record and 2.08 ERA in 21.2 innings. He's faced St.Louis twice this year, going 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 2 starts. In his last start at Busch against the Cards, Marquis went 6.2 innings while allowing 3 earned runs on 5 hits and 3 walks to 0 strikeouts. In his last start at home against Arizona, Marquis went a strong 7.2 innings giving up 2 earned runs on just 4 hits and a walk to 3 strikeouts.

--OFFENSE--

-CUBS- Has the Cubs' Offense awakened? The 'O got it done in game 2 without the use of a homer: Smacking 14 hits, 5 of them doubles and 1 a triple. With players seemingly emerging out of nowhere to contribute to the club (Jones getting hot, Floyd ripping the ball all over tonight) and Derrek Lee returning to the lineup, the Cubs can put up some big numbers on the scoreboard in a hurry.

-I- Who's hot?: Jacque Jones is 11 for his last 25 (.449) with 7 RBIs. Jones continues to rip singles every which way and knock in base runners with 2 outs.
-II- The Rob Bowen award: Kendall is 1 for his last 15 (.067), but got a free ride on the pine in game 2 with Koyie Hill catching that game.

-III- Kendall time?: Jason Kendall is 5 for 10 (.500/.545/.600) lifetime against Looper with a double, walk, and 3 RBIs. Jacque Jones is 4 for 7 (.571/.571/.571). Aramis Ramirez is 4 for 13 (.308/.357/.308)
-IV- Fumbling Floyd: Floyd is 0 for 5 (.000) lifetime against Looper with a walk. Hey, Floyd was in this section in the last preview too - look how that one turned out.

-CARDINALS- The Cardinals' offense just isn't getting the job done so far in this series. What embodies this most of all? Albert Pujols going 0 for 9 so far this series.

-I- Juuuaaan Gone!: Juan Encarnacion is 4 for 12 (.333/.385/.833) lifetime against Marquis. 2 of those hits left the yard. Aaron Miles is 4 for 8 (.500/.500/.625). Albert Pujols is 4 for 9 (.444/.545/.444). Yadier Molina is 2 for 3 (.667/.667/1.667) with a homer.
-II- Rolen over: Scott Rolen is 5 for 21 (.238/.238/.524) lifetime against Marquis. 2 of those hits, however, went yard.

-III- Who's hot?: Juan Encarnacion is 11 for his last 21 (.524) with 7 RBIs.
-IV- Who's not: Aaron Miles is just 4 for his last 22 (.181) with 2 RBIs. He sat against the left-handed Lilly in game 2.

What to hope for:
- The recent Cubs' method of pounding out base hits without homers to score runs fits right in with Looper's way of GIVING UP runs; which is also by allowing many base hits and line drives without many homers.

What to watch for:
- Will DeRosa be back? Is Floyd nearing a day off? Will Kendall continue to ride the pine (It's worked for other Cub batters)?
- We are officially on a broom watch people. Report all sightings here and remain calm!

Projected Lineup:

1- Soriano LF
2- Theriot SS
3- Lee 1B
4- Ramirez 3B
5- Floyd RF
6- Fontenot 2B
7- Jones CF
8- Kendall C
9- Marquis P

Go Cubs!